Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow
By Zach Butler, Meteorologist Posted 19 days ago February 13, 2024
A drastic change of the coastal storm to the south and off the coast will change snow totals across the Mid-Atlantic. Snow will still fall and accumulate on Tuesday across WV, western MD, central to southern PA, NJ, and far southern NY at 2-6 inches. Light lake effect snow will add 1-3 inches of snow on Wednesday in the northern and western Mid-Atlantic.
A rapid change in the forecast is not welcome news in this quick update. The coastal storm in the last 24 hours has taken a rapid turn to the south, which was not well forecasted by numerical models. I hinted at the uncertainty in snow accumulations through northern PA and southern NY in the previous forecast, but even this drastic change I did not expect.
Not all hope is lost though, with light snow accumulations still expected for many areas in the Mid-Atlantic. A couple of areas will even see slightly more snow, so it's always good to look on the bright side.
The storm has trended south because of two main reasons. Reason 1 is that the storm is slightly weaker than forecasted so it will not have as large of a precipitation field and lighter snow. Reason 2 is a high-pressure system in southern Canada is steering this coastal storm further out to sea and preventing it from tracking along the coast.
The storm will move a majority of precipitation out of the Mid-Atlantic by Noon on Tuesday. Scattered lake effect and upslope snow showers will still fall in the northern and western Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. This will add snow accumulations of 1-3 inches to areas not affected primarily by the coastal storm.
Below is a look at the HRRR model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 5 am Tuesday, February 13th through Wednesday afternoon, February 14th.
Snow accumulations of 2-6 inches are likely through many areas of the Mid-Atlantic, which will make for some nice turns across areas that have not seen much snow in the past couple of years. The biggest area of change is the Catskills and central to northern PA where light to no snow accumulations are likely now.
Below is a look at the National Blend of Model’s (NBM) forecasted snow accumulations on Tuesday, February 13th and Wednesday, February 14th.
More chances of accumulating snow are likely on Thursday, February 15th and Friday, February 16th as well as the weekend. There is a lot to watch and talk about, which I will do in the next Daily Snow on Wednesday morning, February 14th.
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