Midwest Daily Snow

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By Croix Christenson, Meteorologist Posted 12 months ago March 31, 2023

Hero or Zero!

Summary

Thursday night delivered some snow, with the highest amounts for the Lake Superior region, and a mix or all rain elsewhere. Friday night into early Saturday will feature a hero or zero scenario, with large differences in snow totals over short distances!

Short Term Forecast

Snow Reports:

I tweeted about this last night and it looks like my concerns turned out to be correct based on webcams this morning, with the snow struggling to make it up to Lutsen and Giants Ridge. 

Snow reports so far Friday AM:

  • The north shore of Lake Superior: 
    • Dusting to 1" reported near Giants Ridge and Lutsen
    • 2-3" near Spirit and Mont du Lac
    • Dusting for Thunder Bay resorts
  • UP: 
    • 1-4" being reported near Ironwood
    • 1-3 in the Keweenaw Peninsula (Bohemia)
    • 3-5" near Ski Brule
    • 2-3" near Marquette Mtn
  • Traverse City:
    • Dusting of snow with rain/mix as well

Friday - Saturday:

  • Wind and rain likely to impact operations Friday into Saturday
    • Granite Peak will be closed Friday due to rain

The Midwest will see a bit of everything Friday into Saturday, with a few severe thunderstorms, rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The winds will also be a factor Friday into Saturday, with winds in the 15-30+ mph range with gusts higher at times.

Here is a loop of winds from the ECMWF for Friday into Saturday:

Location, location, location! Friday night will be a real hero or zero scenario, with 50 miles making the difference between 2" and 10"+. 

What do I mean by this?

Expect a narrow, intense line of snow to form Friday night with snowfall rates of 1-2"+ per hour, which will likely result in some double-digit totals. Similar to the system last week, this system has no shortage of moisture to work with so don't be surprised if we see areas of the Midwest pick up 10-15" in a short time period. 

In addition, models are struggling to agree even with the event currently ongoing, which is unusual. This leads to lower confidence in the forecast and large ranges in the expected snowfall. Finally, most of the snow will fall in a short time period, less than 12 hours, with some areas seeing 6-10"+ in 6-8 hours. 

As a result, below is a range of forecast snow Friday night into Saturday from over a dozen models I trust the most and snow amounts I feel are more likely:

  • North Shore Lake Superior: 0-6", lean less than 2" to a dusting
  • Western UP: 0-7", lean very little for Bohemia and a dusting to a couple of inches for Ironwood resorts
  • Marquette Mtn: 3-12", lean toward 5-9"
  • Pine Mtn & Ski Brule: 4-15", lean towards the 6-10"+ range
  • Wild Mtn & Trollhaugen: 1-9", lean towards the 2-5" range
  • Buck Hill & Welch: 1-11", lean towards the 3-6" range
  • Granite Peak: 3-12", lean towards the 4-8" range
  • Searchmont: 1-11", lean towards the 3-7" range
  • Traverse City resorts still spinning the lifts: 0-11", lean towards 3-7" for Nub's Nob, and less as you go south in the region

My pick for the deepest snow report on Saturday would be from one of these resorts: Granite Peak, Ski Brule, Pine Mtn, or Marquette Mtn. Searchmont and Nub's Nob are in the running but also have equal odds at disappointingly low snow totals. 

I understand that seeing such large snowfall ranges could be frustrating, but this is such a dynamic system, I'd rather you show up pleasantly surprised than disappointed. 

HRRR forecast precipitation types from Friday to Saturday

Loop of many models and the location of the heaviest snow (key takeaway here is the narrow swath of heavy snow expected, but uncertainty on where the heaviest snowfalls)

Sunday:

Models have flipped back towards some snow for the Lake Superior region, with milder temperatures in the southern half of the Midwest. Snowfall amounts as of now look to be in the dusting to 2" range followed by highs in the upper 30s and 40s for resorts still spinning the lifts on Sunday. The widespread 50s are more likely to remain in the southern half of the Midwest where the resorts have closed for the season. 

March 3 - April 9:

  • Tuesday - Wednesday:
    • A significant system likely with some impressive snow totals possible
    • Current model projections favor the Lake Superior region
      • Only Lutsen and Spirit Mtn are confirmed to be operating daily next week in the Lake Superior region
    • Maybe another resort will spin the lifts for a special powder day?
  • Warming trend to end the week for some spring skiing?!

The next forecast will be Saturday AM, thanks for reading! 

-Croix

Extended Forecast

New Closing Dates Announced/Added:

  • Spirit Mtn - Bonus week announced!!!
  • Bohemia - Weekends only after April 2nd

***Compiled from various sources and subject to change, I strongly recommend calling ahead***

Closing Saturday, April 1:

Big Powderhorn, Trollhaugen, Wild Mtn (bonus day), Welch Village (bonus day)

Closing Sunday, April 2:

Nub's Nob, Snowriver (Jackson Creek), Giants Ridge, Porkies, Pine Mtn, Marquette Mtn (tentative), Nordic Mtn (bonus weekend added), Treetops (TBD, but this weekend might be their last), Crystal Mountain

Closing Saturday, April 8:

Mont du Lac (Retro Meltdown to celebrate the end of the season)

Closing Sunday, April 9:

Granite Peak, Spirit Mtn (tentative)

Closing Sunday, April 16:

Snowriver (Black River Basin), Lutsen

***By Geographic Region***

North Shore Lake Superior/Northeast Minnesota
Open: Giants Ridge, Spirit Mountain, Mont du Lac, Lutsen, Bearskin (TBD, likely open into April), Loch Lomond (TBD, likely weekends only in April), Mount Baldy

Closed: Chester Bowl

UP/South Shore Lake Superior/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Open: Birkie, Powderhorn, Porkies, Snowriver, Bohemia, Marquette Mtn, Ski Brule, Pine Mtn, Searchmont (open likely middle to late April)

Closed: ABR, Whitecap, Ripley

Twin Cities Region
Open: Trollhaugen, Buck Hill, Welch Village 

Closed: Coffee Mill, Afton Alps, Mount Kato, Wild Mtn, Hyland Hills, Powder Ridge

Central Wisconsin
Open:
Granite Peak, Nordic Mtn (bonus weekend added)

Closed: Paul Bunyan, Christie

Southern Wisconsin Region
Closed: Mt La Crosse, Cascade, Devil's Head, Wilmot, Mountain Top, Sundown (Iowa), Chestnut (Illinois), Sunburst, Alpine Valley (WI), Tyrol, Little Switz

Northern Lower Michigan/Traverse City Region/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Open: Nub's Nob, Boyne Mtn, Crystal Mtn, Treetops

Closed: Boyne Highlands, Otsego, Shanty Crk, Caberfae

Southwest Lower Michigan/Grand Rapids Region/Kalamazoo Region/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Closed: Cannonsburg, Bittersweet, Timber Ridge, Swiss Valley

Southeast Lower Michigan/Detroit Region
Closed: Mt Brighton, Mt Holly, Alpine Valley (MI), Pine Knob

Announcements

Road Conditions:

About Our Forecaster

Croix Christenson

Meteorologist

Croix grew up in Saint Paul, Minnesota where he developed his passion for the outdoors and snow. He attended the University of Wisconsin-Madison and received his BS and MS in Atmospheric Science. When not working, you will find Croix exploring his Duluth, Minnesota backyard by skiing, mountain biking, fishing, surfing, hiking with his dog Doppler, or just about any activity that gets him outside.

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