Wednesday morning temperatures are starting the day in the low-to-mid 40s slope side and are expected to increase into the 50s throughout the day. Skies will become partly sunny across most areas (or start sunny) with some clouds and light rain currently hanging tough over southern Vermont. Clouds should also clear that are currently over the eastern White Mountains/western Maine.

The big story here in the short-term forecast is a high-elevation snowstorm on its way for Thursday into Friday. So let's not wait to jump into that. Here's the run down:

Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny with temperatures pushing into the mid 50s, near 60F at bases. Overnight temperatures drop into the upper 30s. Conditions will be soft, corn-fest.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain developing late. Highs only into upper 40s, maybe 50F. More soft conditions. Rain starts to transition to snow at elevation across Vermont late afternoon and evening.

Thursday Night: Rain transitions to snow at elevation first with some lowering of the freezing level (rain/snow level) down to near the ~1500'. Temperatures near or just above freezing at bases. Snow will plaster onto all elevated surfaces like trees and power lines. It'll dump hardest in southern and central Vermont.

Friday: Nor'Easter is sitting pretty over Nantucket, throwing moisture and precipitation in the form of wet snow across most of Central New England with flakes flying possibly down to the Long Island sound? Heavy wet snow, mixing with rain, is likely throughout the day on Friday.

Here's the NAM forecast for 2PM Thursday through 2PM Friday. Woof.

Now the NAM does have a history of being a bit enthusiastic when it comes to wet snow events. So let's take a look at the GFS (first) and ECMWF (second) forecasts for the same/similar period:

GFS:

ECMWF:

Alright, so it's most likely going to snow. Especially in the foothills and at elevation across Vermont and northern/central New Hampshire. How much are we talking about?

Snow accumulation forecasts are going to be all over the place. Here's some things to keep in mind:

• The ground is wicked warm where there isn't snow, so you'll see accumulating snow first where there is snow already on the ground or elevated/grassy surfaces that can cool the quickest.
• Accumulation will be favored at elevation where temperatures are coldest.
• The snow is going to be wet, so we're talking low-ratio dense stuff. 
• There will likely be a band of heavier snows on the north and west side of the storm. Inside this band, the meteorological dynamics will favor heavier snowfall rates, which will favor more snow. Outside of this band, precipitation could stay rain. 
• Expect large differences in accumulation over relatively short distances, especially places with elevation differences between ~500 feet and ~1500 feet (and up). 

The OpenSnow forecast is nice. Models are pumping out over a foot at Mount Snow, Killington, Sugarbush, and Sugarloaf with just inside a foot at Stowe, Jay Peak, Loon, Sunday River, and Saddleback. I personally think these amounts are valid for the summits, and are a tad over done; however, they are not out of the question. Someone is likely going to see a foot or more; my odds are on southern Vermont.

The ensembles are also loving on our chances of snow. The ECMWF ensemble is taking the over, especially in central New Hampshire where they're pumping out an ensemble mean of 7.5" of snow (at a 10:1 ratio) at 500 feet elevation with a spread between 2.5" and over a foot. That'd be a lot of snow for mid-April. Granted, that's 10:1 and we're likely going to see closer to 6-7:1 ratios. Still, the ECMWF is liking our odds of a solid 3-6" across the foothills in central New Hampshire and samesies in Vermont. Summits are likely going to get some good accumulating snow. And that's a good thing because we've almost run out.

Again, what could go wrong? Take a look at the bulleted list above again. Lots of factors are working against us this time of year especially at lower elevations. The storm track and any uncertainty there also matters because if we don't get the heavier rain/snow rates, there won't be enough "dynamics" to keep everything cold enough for snow. We're still ~2 days out and that butterfly flapping its wings over the central US could mess everything up.

With all that said. Those mountains still spinning lifts on Saturday morning are going to have some good skiing and riding conditions. Temperatures should hold in the low-to-mid 30s on Saturday with a chance of a stray rain shower. Summits should remain below freezing. Same for Sunday, with cloudy skies. If you're looking for one final weekend on snow... 

The pattern remains "unsettled" through the rest of next week with some weak storms and fronts passing near or over New England. Nothing big in the forecast, but occasional rain showers, mixed with snow at elevation, is expected Mon-Wed next week. Temperatures will remain near or just below normal for this time of year, which is mainly in the 40s. 

Something to keep an eye on is mid-week on Wednesday. The GFS model is hinting at another storm tracking up the coast with a second storm over the interior. If these two storms merge, they could produce favorable conditions for another interior snow event. Very low odds at this point. Here's the forecast animation for Wednesday showing the messy evolution:

 

The chances of snow at elevation next week, combined with our storm on Friday, are pushing the 10-day OpenSnow forecast to "Apridiculous" levels with a 30+ printing at Tuckerman Ravine:

I knew I shouldn't have put my skis away...

I'll likely be back tomorrow/Thursday with an update and at minimum back again on Friday morning.

-Dr. Jay | New England Daily Snow