Some mixed precipitation is likely early on Friday and will go over to light rain across most locations in New England. Sunshine on Saturday will be followed by more rain for Sunday, light snow on Monday, and rain again next week.
Short Term Forecast
I hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving. Mine was pretty good, but I wish there was more snow to be thankful for this year! Unfortunately, there is more rain than snow in the forecast.
Radar analysis at 6:30AM on Friday 11/25.
Clouds hung back on Thursday and didn't really move into the region until the overnight hours. Radiative cooling allowed temperatures to bottom out into the 20s on Friday morning across many inland valleys. As a result, precipitation with our incoming weak storm (cold front) is falling as some snow and as a mix of rain and snow across New England with mostly snow above 3000-3500 feet in the Adirondacks, north-central Greens, and White Mountains at 7AM.
NAM model forecast for 7AM Friday through 1AM Saturday.
Warm air will continue to work its way into the region on Friday and changeover most rain to snow, with the exception of the highest terrain across the White Mountains. Colder air will filter back into New England behind the cold front and upslope snow showers should start later this evening in Northern Vermont and the north slope of the Whites. Winds will also howl overnight with 30-40 mph winds and higher gusts not out of the question, especially in the higher terrain.
Best odds for accumulating snow at the start of precipitation on Friday and then upslope flow overnight on Friday will be across northern resorts in Vermont at Jay Peak where we have 2-4" in the forecast and a pair of 1" snows are forecast up at Saddleback and Sugarloaf.
ECMWF model forecast for 7AM Sunday through 1PM Monday.
Saturday is looking like a quiet day with high pressure sliding over New England. It'll be a bit breezy, especially to start, with temperatures warming into the mid-30s on the slopes. With any luck, we'll see more sun than clouds. The dry weather holds into Sunday morning with clouds and rain on approach shortly after lunch. This storm looks like mostly rain on Sunday as it tracks through western New York and warm air floods the region; temperatures likely go above 40F at most resorts on Sunday morning. Snow conditions should soften as temperatures won't really drop back below freezing on Saturday night.
Ensemble odds of more than ONE inch of snow in the 24-hour period ending at 7PM on Monday.
As one storm exits on Sunday evening, a second storm with most of its energy in the upper atmosphere moves in for Monday. Intermittent rain and snow showers across New England, with more persistent snow showers across northern regions could add up to a few inches of snow by Monday night. The ensemble odds for at least ONE inch of new snow in the 24-hour period ending at 7PM on Monday are >70% in the ECMWF model in the northern Adirondacks, northern Vermont, and far northern border regions of New Hampshire and Maine.
The extended range forecast isn't looking much better than the rain fest we're having this weekend.
Multi-model (ECMWF, GDPS, and GFS) forecast comparison for 7PM Wednesday.
Multiple models are pointing toward another rain storm crossing New England on Wednesday and Wednesday night as a storm tracks far to our west. The verdict is still out on just how wet this storm will be. More than 1" of rain could be in the cards across the mountains and is something to keep an eye on. Unfortunately it doesn't look like much snow, if any, is even possible on the front-side of the storm before the warm air moves in.
ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfall in Central Vermont through the first week of December.
The ensemble grid does point toward some snow once again possible on Thursday in Central Vermont. This forecast is highlighting the change-over to upslope snows once the Wednesday storm moves on to our East. The forecast is currently only calling few upwards of a few inches of snow in the grid; we have 1-2" at Jay Peak on Thursday in our OpenSnow forecast and 0-1" at Killington. It's not much. Intermittent light snow is possible into next weekend according to the ensemble grid above. Unfortunately, there is very little consensus yet to lock anything down.
Sorry for not having better news in the snow department. Three rain storms in a week is a tough pill to swallow. Hopefully we can start talking about more snow storms here as we enter December. Fingers crossed. The next update of the New England Daily Snow will be on Sunday.
-Jay Cordeira, Meteorologist for the New England Daily Snow