Light snow on Wednesday in the mountains will give way to sunshine for Thanksgiving. Some snow changes to mostly all rain on Friday, upslope snows Friday night, sunshine on Saturday, rain again late on Sunday, and upslope snows on Monday.
Short Term Forecast
Tuesday featured plentiful sunshine across New England with temperatures supporting continued snow-making activities. From what I could tell, open resorts have not added much terrain but continue to better the conditions and coverage on the limited terrain. A few more resorts come online today (Wednesday) and even more over the upcoming weekend.
We are currently looking at a weak cold front crossing the region on Wednesday morning. Snow showers are ongoing out ahead of the front across Downeast Maine and in shallow upslope flow over the Northern Green Mountains. Snowfall accumulations will be minimal as plentiful dry air in the lower atmosphere will eat away at some of the falling snow. Best odds for accumulating snow will be across the mountains in Northern Vermont where some models produce 2-4" totals, but 1" or less is more likely.
The Jay Cloud is currently locked in place at 6AM on Wednesday morning. I expect the webcam won't change much throughout the day with intermittent snow showers likely. We have 1" of new snow in our forecast for the mountains, but again some models are more bullish. Otherwise, high pressure builds into New England on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night setting the stage for a rather pleasant Thanksgiving.
Previous Daily Snows highlighted notable uncertainty in the forecast for this upcoming weekend. That uncertainty has largely sorted itself out, but the results are not great. Overall forecast guidance is pointing toward four periods of precipitation on Friday (mostly rain), Friday Night (upslope snows), Sunday (rain), and Monday (upslope snow). If you're looking for fair weather, you're in the clear on Saturday and Sunday morning is still okay. Check out the details below:
GFS model forecast for 4AM Friday through 7AM Saturday.
The GFS model forecast, and to a large degree also the ECMWF model forecast, has a storm that tracks to the north of the region on Friday. Round 1 of precipitation crosses New England from West to East with rain likely beginning around mid-morning with snow at elevations above ~3000 feet. Most locations that start as snow ultimately changeover to rain in the afternoon as temperature migrate through the 30s to near 40F on the slopes. Any snowfall accumulations will be limited to the high terrain. We have a very optimistic 0-1" forecasted over at Killington, 1-2" at Tuckerman Ravine, and 0-1" at Sugarloaf. Pretty meh if you ask me.
Round 2 of precipitation likely falls as snow in backslide upslope as the northern storm bottoms out over the Canadian Maritimes on Friday night. The wind will crank out of the north on Friday night, but should be dying down by Saturday morning. Upslope snows should be good for 1-3" of new snow up at Jay with lesser amounts as you head south out of the favorable upslope region.
GFS model forecast for 10AM Sunday through 1AM Tuesday.
Saturday is looking mostly sunny as high pressure sneaks across the region. Sunday is currently also going to feature dry weather to start prior to the next round of precipitation. Round 3 of precipitation will start Sunday afternoon from southwest to northeast as a storm tracks inland across the Northeast through the St. Lawrence River Valley. Temperatures remain warm, pushing 40F on the slopes, favoring rain through the early morning hours on Monday. It doesn't look like a washout, but it's still annoying.
Round 4 of precipitation arrives mid-morning on Monday as backside upslope snows in the wake of the slowly departing (and intensifying) storm and gusty northwest winds. Jay Peak and Stowe currently have 2-3" in the forecast for Monday.
ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-h snowfall through December 7th.
Now is when I look into my ensemble crystal ball and try to cherry pick good news for you out of the forecast for the Holiday weekend. Unfortunately not today. The ensembles all support only light snows possible in upslope flow on Friday night and again on Monday with mostly rain on Friday and (late) Sunday. One piece of good news is that the ensembles are suggesting an active period for snow setting up for late next week and next weekend as we round out the first week of December. So as long as this signal doesn't vaporize -- it could -- we'll have something to talk about next week.
The weather is looking pretty snow-light here for the Holiday Weekend. I'll update the Daily Snow next on Friday morning with an update over the weekend likely on Sunday. Enjoy your Thanksgiving.
-Jay Cordeira, Meteorologist for the New England Daily Snow.
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