A cold front crossed the region late on Tuesday evening into the overnight period bringing a mix of snow, sleet, and rain. Most locations across the North Country saw light snow with accumulations ranging anywhere from a coating to about an inch. The snow board up at snow notched just shy of 1" by 5:30AM on Wednesday.

Snow showers may continue through mid-morning on Wednesday across the Greens and Whites with little additional accumulation expected. The best shot at accumulating snow will be up at Jay through lunchtime. Otherwise, temperatures on the slopes are likely going to stay where they are for the rest of the day in the mid-20s to low-30s with valley locations pushing into the mid-to-upper 30s through southern Vermont and New Hampshire. 

NAM model forecast animation for 1PM Thursday through 1PM Friday.

Our next shot at precipitation arrives on Thursday afternoon with the warm front of a storm exiting the Great Lakes into southern Canada. The midday arrival, as opposed to evening or overnight, will lead to a mix of rain and snow to start with a changeover to all rain. Freezing rain and sleet will be likely across the Whites and into Maine during Thursday night.

Colder air does filter in behind the storm on Friday changing over precipitation back to snow across northern resorts near the Canadian border. Decent northwest winds should continue a period of "moisture-starved" upslope snows through Friday evening and into Saturday morning. The end result will be some backside snows, but accumulations will be on the low end with ~2-4" up at Jay and ~1-2" at Stowe.

Our previously forecast coastal storm for the weekend is just completely gone from the forecast. Well not gone, but wide right and out to sea. A big swing and miss from the models from Monday. Although to be fair there was considerable uncertainty and it was never a lock. Still depressing. The weather looks pretty tame of the upcoming weekend featuring a mix of clouds and sun with cooler temps in the 10s and low 20s on Saturday giving way to upper 20s on Sunday.

ECMWF and GFS ensemble storm locations and pressure for next Sunday night (12-13 Feb).

A storm is expected to instead pass to our South on Sunday and Sunday night and we'll have to watch how far precipitation moves north. The ECMWF ensemble has a few solutions that bring the storm closer to the southern New England coast, and is stronger, than the generally weaker and out-to-sea solution of the GFS ensemble. The odds of an interior snowstorm are quite low and almost not worth mentioning.

ECMWF ensemble mean high/low forecast at Rutland, Vermont. 

The storm track into next week continues to favor storms that develop over the Central Plains and move into the Great Lakes region. It's unclear how much cold air can remain over New England in this scenario as precipitation associated with these storms -- looks like 1 or 2 next week -- reach us. The timing of these storms could also matter with daytime highs likely pushing into the upper 30s (or low 40s) across the North Country with overnight lows in the 20s. It's going to feel a lot more like late March or early April than mid-February.

-Dr. Jay

Next update on Friday.