Snow showers are likely across the North Country on Saturday night and through Sunday as temperatures turn colder with a passing trough of cold air aloft. A dry start to the week will give way to increasing odds of snow into next weekend.
Rain showers have mostly moved out with the passing cold front on Saturday morning and switched over to light snow showers in the mountains. Mt. Washington is currently reporting temperatures of 17F on the summit with temperatures below freezing down through ~2000 feet. Freezing levels should continue to drop through Saturday morning below ground as air temperatures settle in the 20s on the slopes. Sunshine will likely develop over the valleys and away from the mountains on Saturday, but remain cloudy with snow showers across the North Country.
NAM model forecast animation for 6PM Saturday through Midnight Sunday night.
The cooler air extends up through the atmosphere and that trough of cold air aloft will move over New England through Saturday night and Sunday. Some forcing for rising motion out ahead of the trough, and then beneath the trough on Sunday, will lead to widespread, but intermittent, snow showers across the region on Saturday night and Sunday.
NAM and HRRR model snowfall forecast through Sunday night.
Our high resolution models point toward ~3-6" of snow in the Adirondacks primarily associated with an inland extension of lake-effect snow off Lake Ontario. Over New England, the models are suggesting that ~1-2" is possible in the southern Greens, northern Greens, and Whites. The OpenSnow blend has 0-1" at Killington and Mount Snow with 1-2" at Stowe.
ECMWF ensemble grid of 24-hour snowfall through April 1st.
The extended range forecast remains the same as yesterday's (Friday's) forecast. The week starts out dry with odds of snow increasing into next weekend with two rounds of snow possible. The first crops up on Saturday and Sunday (25-26 March) in the ECMWF ensemble with the second following next Tuesday and Wednesday (28-29 March).
ECMWF ensemble mean forecast for sea-level pressure and precipitation next weekend.
The chances for snow currently line up best with next Saturday (25 March) and next Tuesday (28 March) in the ECMWF ensemble. The only significant change from Friday's forecast is the first storm appears to be slightly farther east and more along the coast, which is a shift toward a slightly cooler solution. We are a week out and a lot could change, but the pattern is looking good.
Enjoy your weekend.
The next Daily Snow will be posted on Monday morning.