New England Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest New England Daily Snow

By Jay Cordeira, Meteorologist Posted 2 months ago February 12, 2024

Southern New England Snowstorm

Summary

Models shifted overnight in favor of a more southerly storm track. As a result, heaviest snows from a Nor'easter on Tuesday are now expected over southern New England.

Short Term Forecast

Models continue to refine their forecasts for the upcoming Nor'easter on Tuesday. Latest guidance from the high-resolution models are suggesting the storm will likely take a more southerly track, effectively riding the southern edge of the ensemble spread we discussed over the weekend. 

Animation of the last four runs of the GFS model valid at 7AM on Tuesday illustrating a southward shift in guidance. 

The more southerly track will unfortunately mean that storm total snowfalls will retract into southern New England and lower snowfall totals are now expected across southern Vermont and New Hampshire. These locations were always on the edge of the highest totals in a region of uncertainty, where a difference of <100 miles would make all the difference.

Animation of the last four runs of total snowfall from the GFS model. 

A more southerly storm track is the result of a slightly weaker system emerging off the East Coast. Stronger storms tend on average to be a bit more amplified and trend north over time; this storm is the opposite. The weaker system will likely in turn result in slightly lower snowfall totals. The highest totals >12" will likely be confined to northern New Jersey and the southern Catskills with isolated >12" totals possible across southern New England.

HRRR model total snowfall forecast through 7PM Tuesday. 

A weaker and more southerly system doesn't mean no snow. There's going to be plenty of snow across the locations now across southern New England. Much of central New England, and especially northern New England, will miss out. Unfortunately, the best snow is going to miss "ski country".

Note that in many forecast graphics you will see 10:1 snowfall ratios (10 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid forecast by the model). This storm is likely going to produce heavy wet snow with lower snowfall ratios than the average. The ground is also pretty darn warm on account of record warmth over the weekend and persistent sunshine all week. Snow will melt as it hits the ground and the bottom layer of snow will be slush as it struggles to accumulate. 

Extended Forecast

So if it is not going to snow on Tuesday, when is the next round of snow expected? Thursday into Friday. A weak area of low pressure is expected to cross the Great Lakes and New England and bring our next shot at light snow to the region. Snowfall totals are not going to be very high, but there should be just enough forcing and moisture to squeeze our a few inches of snow across the North Country. It's better than nothing. 

ECMWF ensemble mean forecast for 7PM Thursday through 1PM Friday. 

Some upslope snow showers are likely into Saturday, but otherwise the pattern looks like it could quiet down into early next week. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is expected temperatures to largely settle below normal across New England next week (19 - 25 February) with near-normal odds for precipitation. 

NOAAA Climate Prediction Center temperature and precipitation outlooks for 19-25 February.

It is with noting that even "normal" odds for precipitation is relatively high all things considered. We are currently near our peak for wintertime odds of a Nor'easter and normal odds could still produce a snowy day or two. The ensembles models do contain several members with chances for snow next week that are worth keeping tabs on for next Wednesday (21 Feb) and the following weekend (24-25 Feb).

ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfall through Monday 26 February. Each grid box represents a single ensemble members forecast for a 24-hour snowfall amount using a 10:1 ratio. 

Thanks for reading. Please look for an update on Tuesday morning as the flakes fly across southern New England.

-Dr. Jay

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About Our Forecaster

Jay Cordeira

Meteorologist

Jay Cordeira is an all-around outdoor enthusiast living and working among the lakes and mountains in New England. When he’s not in the classroom teaching the next generation of meteorologists, you can find him on the trails, rivers, lakes, slabs, and backcountry of the White Mountains.

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