New England Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest New England Daily Snow

By Jay Cordeira, Meteorologist Posted 2 months ago February 14, 2024

Blustery with more snow in the forecast

Summary

A coastal storm for southern New England followed by some snow showers in the North Country dropped a potpourri of 1-15" snowfall totals across the region. Bluster weather sets up for Wednesday with more snow on deck for Thursday night.

Short Term Forecast

A coastal storm dropped a narrow stripe of snowfalls >6" across portions of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. The highest amounts fell in an even narrower band through the same region with a maximum reported total of 15.7" in West Hartford, Connecticut. 

National Weather Service snowfall reports through Wednesday morning. 

Snow squalls and upslope flow also contributed to some enhanced snow showers over upstate New York and northern Vermont on Tuesday afternoon and overnight into Wednesday. These snows were not totally unexpected, but they did produce a bit more snow than I expected. Mad River, Killington, Bromley, and Smuggler's Notch all reported 4" on Wednesday with Jay Peak and Stowe reporting 5". Several other locations in both Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts also reported totals of 1-4". 

Snowfall reports received by OpenSnow on Wednesday morning.

Rounding out the week

The forecast for Wednesday remains blustery with temperatures dropping back into the teens with a stiff west-northwest wind gusting 30-40 mph. Some gusts on the mountain summits could top 50 mph. Mt. Washington is currently gusting over 80 mph as of 7AM on Wednesday with temperatures near 0F at 4000 feet and -10F at 6288 feet. Most resort elevations will settle somewhere between 5 and 20F. 

Our next shot of snow will be on Thursday into Friday as a weak area of low pressure crosses the region. Light to occasionally moderate snow is expected primarily on Thursday night, but may start a bit earlier across New York and end a bit later across New Hampshire and Maine. 

GFS model forecast animation for 1PM Thursday through 1PM Friday. 

The storm should produce a broad region of 2-4" of snow with relatively low density. In other words, this snow is going to be quite fluffy with model liquid-to-snow ratios >10:1. Our internal model guidance for Killington shows snowfall ratios of 12:1 to 15:1. Models generally are producing between 0.25 and 0.4 inches of liquid precipitation for this event in the Greens and Whites. At 12:1 ratios that should yield 3-5" of snow, which is exactly what we have in our OpenSnow blend for Killington. 

OpenSnow snow quality forecast at Killington through Saturday. 

Extended Forecast

Snow showers are expected to linger and continue into Saturday with some additional light accumulations possible across the mountains. You can see that in the previous figure posted for Killington above. Another round of light snow and snow squalls is also expected on Sunday night. Altogether, the pattern remains active for snow showers into early next week (i.e., active, but not "active" active).

ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfall totals through the end of the month. Several rounds of light snow are possible in the short-term through Sunday night. 

The ECMWF ensemble is suggesting that the middle of next week will likely be on the quiet side Tuesday through Thursday (20-22 February) prior to a potential event late next week (23-24 February). There is broad model consensus among the ensembles for a potential coastal storm late on Friday (23 Feb), but given that we're 9 days out, you can't really rely on that forecast. We'll keep an eye on it.

 

GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts for late next week at 7PM on Friday 23 February.

Thanks for reading. I will post another update on Thursday morning with the latest high-resolution model guidance for snowfall on Thursday night. 

-Dr. Jay

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Many ski resorts have snow stake cameras and this allows us to (try to) figure out how much snow falls each hour. We're calling this "Powder Vision".

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About Our Forecaster

Jay Cordeira

Meteorologist

Jay Cordeira is an all-around outdoor enthusiast living and working among the lakes and mountains in New England. When he’s not in the classroom teaching the next generation of meteorologists, you can find him on the trails, rivers, lakes, slabs, and backcountry of the White Mountains.

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