Quick Saturday evening update to help inform your potential ski plans for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Models have trended up since Friday's discussion due to a sub-tropical atmospheric river set up that will join forces with the storm dropping down from Nevada to increase chances for snow in New Mexico. We still don't have unanimous agreement and numbers have been fluctuating with each model run, so I am bumping up my forecast but keeping it on the conservative side due to lots of uncertainty. On Friday I felt confident with a 1 to 4-inch snowfall total through Monday evening. I am increasing to 3 to 7 inches favoring Ski Santa Fe, Taos Ski Valley, Sipapu, and Ski Apache. If all of the ingredients line up, we could see some surprise totals of 8 to 12 inches or more in isolated spots at the highest elevations of the Sangre de Cristos around Ski Santa Fe and Taos Ski Valley.

I explain the nuances of our current forecast scenario below but here is the bottom line:

1. Expect a full-on storm ski day Sunday in the northern mountains (warmer temps, denser snow Sunday).
2. Monday first chair should be a moderate powder day (colder temps, fluffier snow Monday), with the slight possibility for a full-on powder day at the highest elevations if the most optimal scenarios play out.
3. Tuesday should be a fun post-storm ski day with soft conditions and blue skies. There could be some accumulation after lifts close Monday for low-end first chair freshies Tuesday morning.
4. We are seeing awesome new terrain openings each day at all mountains so watch out for more ropes drops in the coming days for the best and deepest turns.

Saturday saw new terrain openings at Sipapu, Taos Ski Valley, Red River, and Ski Santa Fe. It was an epic and momentous day at Taos with the season's first opening of the Highline Ridge hike-to terrain. Here are two shots from Saturday morning, first looking south across the ridge toward Kachina Peak and the second looking north (Photos by Todd Lopez).

Ok, so getting into the details of our Sunday-Monday storm. Over the last 24 to 36 hours an atmospheric river has locked in and it will pump sub-tropical moisture all the way from Hawaii into the southwest U.S. and New Mexico. Saturday evening's satellite image of water vapor in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is a gorgeous and impressive sight to see.

The atmospheric river is streaming loads of water vapor moisture (invisible to the naked eye) northeastward across thousands of miles. Meanwhile our storm system is spinning around the California-Oregon border where it will soon make a jaunt east over the Great Basin of Nevada and then slide southeast toward Colorado. The brunt of the energy associated with this storm will still miss us to the north, which is why we aren't seeing confidence and agreement across model forecasts.

Additionally, the direction of the atmospheric river coming from the west and southwest means that the mountains to the west of our ski areas will get hit first and squeeze some of the moisture out of the atmosphere, leaving less for the ski area mountain chains to the east. For example, Mt. Taylor in western New Mexico, the western edge of the Jemez Mountains, and the Tusas Mountains near Chama could see up to 20 inches of snow. So lots of wildcards and variables at play here. 

Below is a sampling of model forecasts that demonstrate the wide variation in numbers even 24 hours ahead of the arrival of our storm. Based on what we have as of Saturday night, I feel pretty good with a 3 to 7-inch forecast Sunday morning through Monday favoring Santa Fe, Taos, Sipapu, and Ski Apache, with reasonable potential for more at the highest elevations of Sangre de Cristos. We have in order below: Colorado Avalanche Information Center and Canadian GEM (less bullish), and National Weather Service NDFD, NAM, and SREF mean (more bullish). 

Enjoy the Sunday storm ski day, Monday morning freshies, and Tuesday blue-bird post-storm day. Get ready for more rope drops and epic early-season turns! Post a comment and photo below (website version) if you ski to let us know how it is.

I won't post again until Monday morning unless there are significant changes from the forecast above on Sunday.

¡Que viva la nieve!

JULIEN ROSS

Compare the snow reports for all mountains in New Mexico here (reports will update when mountains open for the season): https://opensnow.com/state/nm#reports

Compare the 1-5 day forecast for all mountains in New Mexico is here: http://opensnow.com/state/nm

Tentative December opening dates. Many opening dates are dependent on snowmaking and snowfall, so please refer to area websites and social media for dates and hours of operation.

PAJARITO: TBD (check website or contact resort for updates)
ANGEL FIRE RESORT: December 13
SANDIA PEAK TRAMWAY & SKI AREA: December 21