Dress for strong biting winds if heading out on the mountain Tuesday or Wednesday. Below is the wind forecast for Taos Ski Valley (courtesy of Colorado Avalanche Information Center) which is fairly representative of all open resorts. Steady winds of 15mph with gusts to 35mph on both days.

High temps Tuesday to Friday will be in the 20's above 10,000 ft and 30's below 10,000ft, with lows in the single digits and teens across all mountains thanks to the passing system on Tuesday and clear nights. These below-average temps in the northern mountains and the low sun angle of early January will be our friend this week as we try to retain snowpack while awaiting our next storm.

The next chance of snow will be January 9-10 which I discuss below in the extended forecast section, but first, a check-in on our old friend, La Niña. 

La Niña: what is it and what are the potential impacts on the 2020-2021 season in New Mexico?

So what are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña as it relates to snow forecasting? If these terms are new to you, or if you would like a little refresher, here are two short articles that provide an excellent overview and context.

ENSO, El Niño, & La Niña - Explained

La Niña & Winter Forecasts - Explained

Ok, so now that we have a baseline understanding, how is the 2020-2021 season going, and what is the outlook going forward?

We have been under a La Niña advisory since September and this year's La Niña has been generally classified as moderately strong, so not the strongest on the spectrum but also not the weakest. So we would generally expect the Pacific Northwest to have a wetter than normal winter and the southwest to have a drier than normal season, as shown broadly in the image from the second article above.

But the precipitation trends are much more nuanced when we zoom in at the county level, and when we examine 15 other moderate La Niña years in history similar to the current 2020-2021 season, as climatologist, Brian Brettschneider, has done with this graphic also in the article above:

Now let's zoom in on New Mexico from the map above which looks at data from 15 past moderate La Niña seasons.

We see that past moderate La Niñas have been able to achieve 100 to 110% of average precipitation in parts of the northern Sangre de Cristos in the green highlighted Taos County (Taos Ski Valley, Red River, Sipapu), and 90 to 100% in the yellow highlighted Colfax County (Angel Fire) and Rio Arriba County (Tusas Mountains near Chama that are the southern part of San Juan Mountains, i.e. Wolf Creek).

Whereas the same years managed only 80 to 90% of average in Santa Fe and Los Alamos Counties (Ski Santa Fe and Pajarito), 70 to 80% for Bernalillo County (Sandia Peak), and 49 to 70% for Lincoln County (Ski Apache).

2020-2021 Season So Far Compared to Average

Now let's look at precipitation so far this season compared to average and see how it is lining up with the climatological trends shown above. Here is precip the last 90-day period ending January 4, 2021, and it is remarkably consistent with the national map above.

And here is the last 30 days ending January 4th, 2021 during which the Pacific Northwest has been getting pounded with a continued overall dry pattern for the deep southwest.

But when we zoom in to New Mexico for the last 90 and 30 days we see nuances also consistent with the climatological record so far. Here is precipitation vs average for the past 90 days ending January 4th.

Here is precipitation vs average for the past 30 days ending January 4th.

Both show some slivers and pockets of average or just above average precipitation around Taos County but then falling further below average as you head south. We also see the pocket of average or above-average around the Tusas Mountains near Chama which are a part of the San Juan Mountains (Wolf Creek) that have done well so far this season.

In summary, as of January 2021, New Mexico is experiencing a season so far fairly consistent with previous moderate La Niña years where the far northern Sangres are fairing better than areas just to the south. Taos Ski Valley is at about normal snowpack compared to average currently.

Whereas, all other areas to the south are well below normal, for example, Ski Santa Fe, at 50% of average.

 

And all of this is consistent with our statewide watershed snowpack map which shows things getting dramatically worse as you head from north to south. We have a lot of catching up to do statewide to even get numbers up to the climatological records outlined above.

NOAA is predicting a continued moderate La Niña pattern through March 2021, and the first part of January is certainly consistent with this advisory with storms lined up on the Pacific Northwest.

However, we still have a long way to go in this season and we will see more storms and powder days in the Land of Enchantment. I am hopeful we will turn the tide some in the mountains that have suffered so far this season to make the very best of what is shaping up to be a tough La Niña.

Ok, turning to the extended forecast, all eyes remain on a storm scheduled to arrive in New Mexico on Saturday, January 9th.

The latest European and Canadian model runs have the storm diving south into New Mexico from the Four Corners where it closes into an upper-level low over New Mexico on Saturday into Sunday.

In this solution, it is a more prolonged event and has the potential for more eastern upslope snow with winds from the east and northeast as the low tracks across the state, especially if it tracks further south.

The GFS, on the other hand, has the storm blazing more quickly across northern New Mexico on Saturday as a more short-lived snowfall event, with the storm closing off to the east of New Mexico rather than over the state.

With this uncertainty in track, and being 5 days out still, there isn't much point in speculating snowfall amounts and favored locations. That being said, I would keep expectations on the low to modest side of around 1 to 5 inches for this storm.

As far as timing goes, it is looking like a Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning event. So that would potentially tee up last chair Saturday, and even more likely, first chair Sunday, for soft turns.

Thank you for reading and I will check back in on Wednesday with the latest intel on our January 9-10 storm.

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected] 

Taos Avalanche Center

Consult the Taos Avalanche Center if thinking about heading into the backcountry. It is a very tricky snowpack this year and TAC has everything you need to know to stay informed and safe.

TAC has some great courses and education opportunities coming up too!