Northwest Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Northwest Daily Snow

By Alan Smith, Meteorologist Posted 1 year ago February 1, 2023

Warmer Wed-Thu, snow returns Friday through next week

Summary

Mt. Baker and areas of the Inland NW picked up a little bit of snow on Tuesday. These northern and interior areas will see additional light snow Wed, otherwise, a dry and mild pattern will continue for the rest of the region. The pattern will turn more active late this week with a weak storm favoring WA on Fri-Sat followed by a stronger storm favoring OR on Sun. Early next week looks good too.

Short Term Forecast

January Snowfall and Season-to-Date Snowfall:

January was a light month in terms of snowfall across the PNW as the main storm track was too far south for most of the month. Heading into February, snowpack is about 80-95% of average across most of the region, except for the Blue Mountains in NE Oregon & SE Washington where snowpack is about 100% of average.

I've been tracking ski resort snowfall since the beginning of December (close to when lift-served skiing began at most areas) for comparison purposes. Let's take a look at the numbers so far.

In Western Washington, two areas went over 100 inches in December (Baker and the upper mountain station at Alpental). However, January was much drier with 84 inches at Baker while all other areas received less than 65 inches of snow.

The resorts went over 100 inches in Oregon during December, followed by a similar drying trend during January though most areas did a little better compared to Washington. Mt. Ashland actually received more snow in January compared to December as they caught the northern edge of the storms that slammed California during the first half of the month.

The Inland Northwest also experienced a deep December followed by a dry January. Lookout Pass received over 115 inches in December but only 52 inches in January. Lookout, 49º North, and Bluewood just barely eclipsed 50 inches in January while the other three resorts received less than 40 inches. 

While snowfall has been disappointing in recent weeks, the good news is that we are only slightly below average in terms of snowfall/snowpack and still have a good two and a half months of ski season left to catch up. 

Big Picture Heading into Early February:

A ridge of high pressure is located over the Pacific Northwest, and this will result in generally dry conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. The only exception is a weak disturbance moving across the North Cascades and Idaho Panhandle that has resulted in light snow for some areas. 

The other notable weather feature on Wednesday and Thursday will be a warming trend with highs rising above freezing at Cascades ski resorts both days, and even across the Inland NW resorts on Thursday. 

A more active pattern will arrive late this week and over the weekend with two storms expected in three days. The first storm will arrive on Friday-Saturday and looks like the weaker of the two with a more northerly storm track across Washington.

The second storm on Sunday looks stronger and a bit further south with Oregon in the best position, while the Inland Northwest could also do well with a southwest flow. Washington is more of a wild card on the northern fringe of this storm.

Forecast for Western Washington:

A disturbance clipped Mt. Baker on Tuesday and they are reporting 5 inches of new snow on Wednesday morning. Light snow will remain possible over the far Northern Cascades on Wednesday morning before drying out by Wednesday afternoon.

Otherwise, warmer temperatures can be expected on Wednesday afternoon with highs rising into the mid 30s at ski resort mid-mountain elevations. Similar conditions can be expected on Thursday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 30s. Winds will become gusty out of the southwest on Thursday, however. 

Another weak disturbance will clip the North Cascades on Thursday night with light snow showers possible at Mt. Baker. Snow levels should be near or just below the base with only light accumulations expected.

The next real storm will arrive on Friday with snow developing in the afternoon and continuing through much of the day on Saturday. Snow showers could linger into Saturday evening as well.

Snow levels will range from 2,500-3,000 feet from Baker to Snoqualmie Pass from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning and 2,500-3,500 feet at Crystal and White Pass.

However, snow levels will rise to 3,500-4,000 feet from Baker to Snoqualmie on Saturday afternoon and 4,000-4,500 feet at Crystal and Baker, meaning most areas will see rain mix in near their base areas.

Therefore, I would plan on getting out on Saturday morning to enjoy the best conditions before the snow levels creep up.

Snow totals from Friday through Saturday will range from 6-12 inches at Baker, 4-10 inches at Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes including Alpental, and 3-6 inches at Crystal and White Pass as well as Hurricane Ridge. On the east side of the Cascades, Mission Ridge will only pick up an inch or two.

On Sunday, the next storm will arrive and snow levels will lower a bit to 3,000-3,500 feet for most areas (slightly lower around Baker, slightly higher around Crystal/White Pass). 

There are some question marks as to how far north the deeper moisture with this storm will make it. Oregon is best positioned and this particular model (the European) is only projecting light snow for the Washington Cascades. But if the storm tracks a bit further north, as some other models are suggesting, then higher totals will be possible. 

Forecast for Easter Washington/Northern Idaho:

A disturbance clipped the Inland NW on Tuesday-Tuesday night and most areas are reporting light snow totals on Wednesday AM ranging from a dusting to 2 inches. Light snow showers will remain possible over the Inland NW through early afternoon Wednesday but any additional accumulations will be very light. 

On Thursday, we can expect a break in the pattern along with warmer temperatures as high pressure strengthens over the region. Highs will top out near or above freezing at ski resort mid-mountain elevations on Thursday afternoon. A true thaw after the cold experienced early in the week. 

Dry conditions will prevail through the day on Friday with mild temperatures (similar to Thursday) and gusty winds. A weakening storm will then arrive on Friday night with light snow showers expected during the overnight hours through Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will drop back down a little bit as this storm arrives and snow levels will stay below base areas. However, this is looking like a minor event at this point with snow totals ranging from 1-3 inches through Saturday afternoon.

On Sunday, a stronger storm will move into region with a favorable southwest flow and better snow potential compared to Friday-Saturday. There are still some question marks as how to far north the storm track will make it.

I do think most areas will pick up a few inches of new snow at least, with the potential for higher amounts if the storm tracks just a bit further north. Here is the current (somewhat conservative) projection from the European Model.

Forecast for Oregon:

Dry and sunny conditions will continue on Wednesday and Thursday along with mild temperatures. Highs will reach the mid 30s at mid-mountain elevations across the Cascades and upper 20s to low 30s across the Blue Mountains. Strong south winds will develop across the higher elevations during the day on Thursday. 

The next storm will approach from the west but then swing just to the north on Friday, giving Oregon a glancing blow. Light snow showers will develop on Friday afternoon and Friday night with just some isolated lingering flurries on Saturday.

Snow levels will range from 4,000-4,500 feet at the Hood resorts and Hoodoo (resulting low mountain rain at Hood Skibowl) on Friday-Friday night and 4,500-5,000 feet from Bachelor to Willamette Pass. Snow levels will range from 3,000-3,500 feet across the Blues.

I'm only expecting light snow totals at this point, ranging from a trace to 2 inches at most ski resorts across Oregon through Saturday.

On Sunday, the next storm will arrive and it is looking more favorable for Oregon compared to the last storm. However, there are still some question marks regarding the north vs south track of the storm.

The European Model (pictured below) is projecting a more southerly track that would favor Bachelor and Willamette Pass while other models are projecting a more northerly track that would favor the Hood resorts. We'll see how this shakes out as we get closer. 

Snow levels are expected to be a little bit lower than Friday's storm. Currently, we are projecting snow levels to range from 2,500-3,500 feet at the Hood resorts and Hoodoo and 3,000-4,000 feet at Bachelor and Willamette Pass. These ranges could change moving forward, though, as we're still several days out.

Extended Forecast

Outlook for Monday (Feb 6) to Thursday (Feb 9):

This pattern is looking favorable with storms expected on a near-daily basis. I'm not expecting snow levels to deviate significantly from what we see over the weekend, so rain could occasionally be a factor at lower elevation base areas, but I'm liking our potential for snow totals to add up at mid to upper slopes. 

All regions of the PNW could end up doing well in this pattern, but it's too early to get into storm specifics and day-to-day details.

Outlook for February 10th-15th:

The pattern during this period will favor splitting storms that will have a tendency to fall apart upon reaching the West Coast. There is a bit of uncertainty in this pattern as storms could still hit the PNW Coast and bring decent snow to the Cascades before falling apart – or the storms could split before reaching the coast with most areas missing out.

The Inland NW would not be as favored in this pattern as storms would likely weaken well before reaching the interior ski resorts.

The one caveat is the Canadian Model, which is favoring a stronger storm track with storms holding together better as they move across the Northwest. However, this model is an outlier at this time.

Temperatures may fluctuate a bit during this period, but overall, are projected to end up on the cooler side of average.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (Feb 3).

ALAN SMITH

About Our Forecaster

Alan Smith

Meteorologist

Alan Smith received a B.S. in Meteorology from Metropolitan State University of Denver and has been working in the private sector since 2013. When he’s not watching the weather from the office, Alan loves to spend time outdoors skiing, hiking, and mountain biking, and of course keeping an eye on the sky for weather changes while recreating.

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