A short break today into Thursday before the next system rolls in Thursday night and Friday. Another quick break Saturday before yet another storm arrives on Sunday. The snow continues to pile up!
Short Term Forecast
November is coming to a close and boy was it ever good to us! One of the best Novembers we've seen in a long while with several good powder days and a well-above normal snowpack (we'll talk about it in depth tomorrow) along with early openings and plenty of terrain.
While we are ending the month on a dry not, it's only a short break before we kick off December with a storm. Winds will increase today into Thursday along with clouds. A low-pressure system is dropping down the west coast and will eject inland. This will bring us a round of heavy precip Thursday night into Friday morning.
Because of this storm digging south before moving our direction, we will end up spending most of our time in a SW flow regime. As is often the case, this type of storm is great at picking up Pacific moisture, but temperatures will be a bit warmer. Luckily, we are still in a very cold airmass after the last storm, so it won't be too bad, just not quite as fluffy as the storm we just saw. Friday should be a fun powder day!
A break Saturday before the next storm arrives during the day on Sunday. This is essentially a carbon copy of the first storm, at least in the models right now. Late Sunday into Sunday night we should have a quick shot at accumulating snowfall.
These are fast-moving storms. As I mentioned above, they've got good moisture, but dynamics are lacking a bit. Therefore, most of the good accumulation will be confined to the mountains -- especially areas favored in SW flow. It will also be aimed primarily at Northern Utah. Here is the NBM output for the first system through Friday afternoon:
Quite a bit of liquid amounts of 0.5" to 1" in the Wasatch and western Uintas with a few pockets above 1". When you then add in the second storm, this is the *total* liquid forecasted for the two storms:
Totals went up another 0.5" to 1".
You can also see this graphically in our OpenSnow GEFS plumes:
Based on all this I think broadbrushing these storms as 6-12" each seems like a wise move right now. Sure, we could do better in a few spots, but I think most locations will be within this range. We should be able to refine the details and timing of the second storm a bit better as we get closer, but right now it looks like a late Sunday event that could linger into Monday. Best powder days are Friday (for sure) and maybe Monday. Last chair Sunday could be good as well.
After our storm clear out on Monday, we lose a lot of clarity on what happens next. We should have a few days of break. There are hints in the models of a storm returning around Saturday, Dec 10. Looking at the meteograms, you can see that there's not a lot of consensus for anything right now:
Obviously, I'd love to see more solid signs of storms continuing, but conversely, there's no real signs of dominant ridging either. We just have to wait and watch.
Evan | OpenSnow