South America Daily Snow

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By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago September 15, 2023

Temperatures Falling and Heavy Snow On Tap for the Weekend

Summary

It was a warm and wet day yesterday and last night across the central Andes. Temperatures began falling last night and will continue to do so throughout today. Rain will turn back to snow and then dump overnight through the weekend. Expect Significant accumulations in the central zone as well as very strong winds. Not a whole lot going on Monday and Tuesday but another storm is possible Wednesday.

Short Term Forecast

Well we got through the period of clear precipitation, and we're now on the cold side of this event. Winds will be a major issue today and Saturday, with impacts to lift operations. Still, leeward aspects by Saturday morning will be deep, with another powder day on tap for Sunday as well.

Forecast for Friday 9/15 - Sunday 9/17

Precipitation will be very heavy on Friday in the central zone, especially in Chile. Temperatures will still be on the warm side on Friday, with very dense snow falling. Snow levels will be falling throughout the day, starting out around 1200 m to 1800 m from south to north in the central zone. We should see mostly snow across the region with maybe some rain at low elevations in the morning. With such low snow to liquid ratios, despite huge precipitation numbers, I expect < 5 cms during they day at mid and lower elevations. Winds will guts between 80 - 130 km/hr during the day.

Look at the precipitation forecast form the Canadian model from this morning through Saturday morning.

There's a large area of 100 -150 mm (4 - 6 in) during this time. That's a lot of water! Not surprisingly, with this much moisture, an atmospheric river is responsible. You can see this atmosphere river impacting the region in the GIF below, but only for a short period of time.

I've seen reports of 150 - 200 mm (6 - 8 in) of rain on Thursday causing dangerous flooding on the coast of Chile. 

But back to the snow. It will be dumping Friday night through Sunday morning, with snow quality increasing during that time. Expect 20 - 40 cms above 1500 m, and 10 - 20 cms between 1200 - 1500 m from Friday night through Saturday morning. 

The snow continues on Saturday, with another 10 - 20 cms expected during the day. Winds will be strong against, gusting between 60 - 110 km/h. The snow will be lower density but the winds will keep the snow feeling dense.

Moderate to heavy snow will continue on Saturday night as well. Another 15 - 30 cms are likely by Sunday morning. Winds will be decreasing Saturday night, but we will still see gusts over 50 km/h. Finally, winds will become less of an issue on Sunday, with light snow throughout the day. Sunday will definitely be the best day of the weekend.

Below is an updated snow forecast from Friday through Sunday from the Canadian.

I think the snow heavy snow is a bit too far north in this model, but you still can get an idea of where the biggest totals will be. 

Forecast for Monday 9/18 - Tuesday 9/19

We should stay mainly dry on Monday and Tuesday. Some sunshine is likely Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning, before clouds move in ahead of the next storm during the afternoon. Some models show snow showers arriving as early as Tuesday afternoon, especially in the north, but most keep the arrival of the next storm until Wednesday. 

Extended Forecast

Outlook for Wednesday 9/20 - Sunday 9/24

For the latter part of the workweek a moderate but slow moving storm will impact the region. The heaviest snow is most likely going to fall on Wednesday and Thursday, where 5 - 15 cms are possible each day. Light snow may linger through the weekend as well. I will have more info on this storm in Monday's post.

Thanks for reading the South America daily snow! Follow me @lstone84 on Instagram to check out some new content I will be creating for the North American summer months. 

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About Our Forecaster

Luke Stone

Forecaster

Luke Stone earned his M.S. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Utah, with a research focus on seasonal forecasting. Luke has scored deep days around the world, including coast-to-coast across the United States, Canada, and Europe.

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