The good news the last few days has been that there has been more to talk about than just sunny and 50's.  The bad news continues to be that we don't have any significant storms on the horizon for the next 2 weeks yet....

We do have a change in the weather this weekend with much colder air than we have been seeing, and gusty winds making that cold air feel even colder.  A dry cold front moved through from North today bringing the change in the winds with a shot of colder air.

That will be reinforced by another cold trough from the North Sunday night into Monday.   That will bring stronger winds and colder air, with the chance for some light snow as well.

We should see some light snow showers Sunday night into Monday with the passage of the cold front, but only enough to see a dusting up to an inch or two on the mountains.  Snow levels are well below lake level with the cold air.  

What we have to keep an eye on is more snow showers developing Monday as the low moves through Nevada.  The European model shows some heavier showers just South of the lake.

The GFS has some heavier precip amounts a bit further North to the SW of the lake.

This shouldn't be a big deal for most mountains, but we will watch the shower development closely on Monday.  What the latest model runs tell me is to keep an eye on Kirkwood down to Dodge Ridge.  I have their forecast at 2-4 inches of snow instead of the 1-2 on the other mountains.

High pressure moves back closer to the coast by midweek with warming temperatures into next weekend.

Looking at the long-range I have been talking about another cold trough possible for President's Day.  That is still showing up but the GFS has the trough further to our East with only some cooler air possible.  Meanwhile, the European model has been further West.

The European operational runs have been consistent the last couple days in showing a low dropping just off the coast tapping some moisture this time, and bringing in some moderate snowfall for the 19th.

That is more than a week away so no confidence right now, but it's the best shot at measurable snowfall in the next 2 weeks.  It is also a holiday weekend so it would affect a lot of people.  So we will keep an eye on the trends for another cold trough around the 19th and what it could mean.

After that the long-range ensemble runs show the ridge staying close enough to the coast to block any big storms, but possibly far enough from the coast to allow a cool flow from the North.  Looking at the European weeklies yesterday they do show storms returning by the end of the month and through March, for whatever that is worth.  

At this point we are holding onto hope for a Miracle March.  Past Miracle March months have brought 150-200 inches of snowfall.  We will need that much.  I forecast a below average snowfall season, but never could have guessed it would be on target for lowest snowfall season on record.  Let's hope March erases that statistic.

Stay tuned...BA