We have been seeing very warm weather so far this week. We are cooling down a few degrees today (Wednesday) into Thursday into the 50's on the mountains and 60's at lake level. Wind gusts have picked up to 40 mph gusts on the ridges.
We have a pattern coming up the next week or two where it looks like high pressure wants to anchor near the Pacific NW coast. That would allow weak systems to drop down the East side of the ridge into the Great Basin. The first one is a an area of low pressure that drops down over NV this weekend and could stall there for a few days.
That will cool high temperatures into the 40's on the upper mountains Sat-Mon and 50's at lake level, with continued breezy conditions. It will also bring the chance for showers to fire up each day Sat-Mon, especially during the afternoons. The forecast has been trending a bit wetter the last 24 hours.
Here is a look at the total precip forecast on the GFS through Monday.
That is showing over an inch of liquid possible on the mountain tops in total from the showers, so we could see some heavier showers move through each day. The snow levels look to be running around 8,000-9,000 feet through the period. The heavier showers would lower them, so we could see some snow accumulations above 8k under heavier showers each day that could whiten the peaks.
Overall not a big deal but we will see cooler weather with a chance for showers and maybe some white peaks this weekend into Monday. The latest model runs show the possibility of another weak system dropping in Wed-Fri of next week that could bring the chance for more showers, and would keep high temperatures cooler. So we may not see the warm 70 degree weather again for a little while.
The long-range runs of the GFS show a possibly colder and stronger storm dropping in the week of the 21st. The 2 week total precip forecast is pretty wet for May.
So we can't give up on track the storms yet. We do get snow to lake level in May, sometimes for Memorial Day weekend. I'll be keeping an eye on the forecast through the end of the month. For those skiing the backcountry there could still be some fresh track days.
P.S. If you haven't read the season recap of snowfall and precip, click the link below to go back to the previous post.
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