Tahoe Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Tahoe Daily Snow

By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 5 years ago February 14, 2019

It's Snowtime...

Summary

- Colder air pushing in Thursday crashes snow levels Thursday afternoon below lake level, and down 3,000 feet Thursday night. We could see 1-3 feet of snow on the mountains by Friday morning, and 6-18 inches at lake level. High winds with ridgetop gust well in excess of 100 mph closing upper mountain lifts. - A cold system working down the coast Friday will continue the snow and falling snow levels. Another wave dropping in Saturday will keep the snow showers going, and a final wave Sunday will bring a final round of snow showers. Snow levels around 2,000-3,000 feet over the weekend. We could see 1.5-3 feet of powdery snow on the mountains Friday-Sunday, and 1-2+ feet at lake level. - The week of the 18th we may transition into a cold but drier pattern, with inside slider type systems possibly brushing us with light snow Wednesday & Thursday. - The week of the 25th we could transition into a dry and milder pattern.

Short Term Forecast

Plenty of rain overnight as snow levels jumped to around 8,500 feet as expected.  You can see the subtropical moisture feed into CA this morning on satellite, and you can clearly see the cold trough approaching from the Gulf of Alaska.  That is going to crash snow levels well below lake level today and then it's snowtime!

satellite

Snowfall Reports:

The snowfall reports this morning for the past 24 hours vary by snow measuring elevation.  Pretty much, the lower the number the closer to 7,000 feet the mountain measures, and the higher the number the closer to 8,500 feet they measure.  The snowfall reported is from yesterday as snow levels rose from 7,000 feet to 8,500 feet by last night, and then rain overnight.

snowfall reports

Storm totals are now at 5-20 inches.  The 12 inches in the past 24 hours put Squaw at 408 inches for the season, making it the first to break 400" in Tahoe.  Mammoth picked up 9 inches at 8,900' and 31 inches at 11,000 feet.  So you can see how elevation makes a huge difference in these warm storms.  There was likely 15+ inches that fell the past 24 hours above 9k across the basin.

Warm to Cold Thursday:

As of 7 a.m., the temperatures are holding steady with snow levels still up around 8,500 feet, and freezing levels around 9k.  Just in the past 30 min. we are starting to see some colder air begin to push in aloft.  That will continue today and will happen pretty fast through midday.  The forecast models show snow levels down to 7,000 feet by around 10 a.m., and to lake level by noon.  Then down below 5,000 feet by 4 p.m.  So a 4,000-foot drop in 9 hours which is pretty fast.

Rising and falling snow levels is always very hard for predicting snowfall amounts.  The northern branch of the jet stream merging with the southern branch over CA today into tonight will continue very heavy precipitation and very heavy snow with highs winds.  Winds are gusting up to 130 mph on the ridges this morning closing upper mountain lifts, and those winds will continue all day.  The forecast models show another 2-3 inches of precipitation by Friday morning.

total precip

Snow levels continue to fall to around 3,000 feet Thursday night and snow ratios increase up to 14-19:1 with powdery snow tonight on the mountains.  The heavy precip and increasing snow ratios will allow us to squeeze quite a bit of snow out of the storm by tomorrow morning.  If the current snow level forecast holds, here is the potential additional snowfall by Friday morning.

forecast1

Cold Storm Continues thru Sunday:

As the cold low-pressure system moves down off the coast Friday the snowfall will continue with snow levels possibly dropping as low at 1,000 feet Friday night.  Snow ratios increasing to 20:1 or better on the mountains with very powdery snow falling.  

low

We could see an additional 1-2 feet of snow on the mountains by Saturday morning.  The strong wind gusts up to 70+ mph on the ridges could continue on Friday closing some upper mountain lifts.

Saturday the center of the low off the coast moves inland and should continue the steady snow showers.  We could see a lull Saturday night ahead of a final wave dropping down from the north Sunday bringing a final round of snow showers.  We could see an additional 3-6 inches Saturday, and again on Sunday.

Total precipitation amounts Friday through Sunday on the latest model runs is 1.5-2.5 inches. 

totals

With the high snow ratios that could mean an additional 1-2+ feet at lake level, and 1.5-3 feet of powdery snow on the mountains over the weekend.

forecast2

So if you are glum this morning, don't worry, you should be all smiles by this evening.  The winds come down more Saturday into Sunday, so it should be a good weekend for powder skiing.  It may just be hard to get here and long delays getting home with chain controls down to very low elevations.

Extended Forecast

The long-range still looks the same today.  The cold trough remains over the West next week.  High temperatures remain in the 20's.

trough

We could see a couple of inside slider systems Wednesday into Thursday next week.  They could brush us with light snow.  

The weekend of the 23rd the models show a final inside slider system possibly dropping in from the north.  Then we could transition into a drier pattern the week of the 25th as the ridge builds in over the West Coast.

ridge

As long as the MJO remains progressive I'm expecting that the pattern remains progressive into March.  We could see a stormier pattern return by 2nd week of March.

Stay tuned...BA

Announcements

If you are traveling through the Sierra please use the links below for travel advisories as we do not give our opinions for the "safest" travel times for liability reasons.  You can also follow our I-80 Daily Snow forecast as well.

NWS Reno: https://www.weather.gov/rev/
NWS Sacramento: https://www.weather.gov/sto/
CA road conditions: http://www.dot.ca.gov/cgi-b... (and 1-800-427-7623)
NV road conditions: https://nvroads.com/
OSS weather share: http://oss.weathershare.org/#

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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