Not much change to the forecast this morning.  The forecast models are a little wetter.  We have an atmospheric river of warm moisture coming into CA from south of Hawaii.  That is bringing heavy precipitation and rising snow levels into Thursday morning.

Overnight we saw snow levels rise to around 7,000 feet.  The ski resorts this morning are reporting 1-6 inches of snow overnight.

Snow Levels:

Snow levels have come back down close to lake level this morning as the heavy precip is helping to drag down snow levels.  Temperatures have come down a couple of degrees. 

We will have to watch to see how long that can keep up.  The forecast models still show enough warm air working in today for snow levels to rise to 8,000 feet by this afternoon.  Then as high as 8,500 feet tonight into Thursday morning.

Things get fun again Thursday afternoon as colder air starts to push in as a cold trough moves in from the Gulf of Alaska.  Snow levels should crash pretty fast through the day on Thursday from above 8,000 feet in the morning down to 5,000 feet by evening.  Then down to 3,000 feet Thursday night.

Winds:

Ridgetop winds are gusting to 90+ mph this morning.  Expecting those to increase to over 100 mph today through Thursday.  That should close most upper mountain lifts.

Precipitation:

The forecast models have trended slightly wetter.  48-hour total precipitation amounts Wednesday through Thursday night are not at 4.5-7.5 inches along the crest, with an average of 6 inches.  That means very heavy rain expected below 8,000 feet through Thursday morning and heavy wet snow above 8,000 feet.

Snowfall:

The snowfall forecast is tricky with the rising and falling snow levels.  It's not only the change from rain to snow that is difficult to forecast, but the snow ratios will be decreasing and then increasing significantly into Thursday night.  

Even though we are seeing some snow to lake level this morning, I'm not expecting that to last long and I have all of the snowfall forecast for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night when we could see 6-18 inches of snow.

At 7,000 feet we have some heavy snow this morning with 6-12 inches possible before changing to rain this afternoon.  Then another 1-2 feet possible Thursday afternoon and night after a change back to snow.

At 8,000 feet I am accounting for a possible change to rain Wednesday night before changing back to snow Thursday morning.  We will see heavy wet snow through Thursday morning, and then the snow ratios rise as colder air works in Thursday afternoon and night.  The snow becomes more powdery Thursday night.  We could see 3-5 feet of snow even with a change to rain for several hours Thursday night.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast through Friday morning.

Storm Continues but Colder:

The cold system moving in from the Gulf of Alaska on Friday keeps the snow going with snow levels dropping to 2,000 feet by Friday night.  Snow:water ratios increasing to 15-20:1 with powdery snow falling for all elevations. 

We could see 10-20 inches of powdery snow on the mountains Friday-Friday night. 

Then a final wave moves through on Saturday keeping snow showers going into Saturday night.  We could see another 6-12 inches of powdery snow on the mountains Saturday-Saturday night.

The snow showers look to become fairly light and scattered on Sunday before ending.  Only expecting up to an inch on Sunday with maybe some peeks of sun.

It's cold through the weekend with highs only in the 20's.  Expecting gusty winds Friday that could affect upper mountain lift operations.  Then the winds should start to come down Saturday into Sunday.

Snow Totals:

The GFS is the wettest with up to 10 inches of total precipitation along the crest by Sunday night.  

The model average is 6 inches with the warmer storm and 1.7 inches for the colder storm over the weekend.  Here is the updated snowfall forecast for Friday-Sunday.

In total, we could see 4-8 feet of snow above 8,000 feet where we see all snow over the next 5 days.  We see lesser amounts with all the rain below 8k Wednesday into Thursday morning, but then we could see a few feet of powdery snow Thursday night through Sunday to make up for it.

For next week the cold trough remains over the West.

The forecast models show a possible weak system for Wednesday-Thursday next week sliding down from the north into the Great Basin.  That could brush us with some light snow.  Overall, expecting a drier but cold pattern next week.

Then the week of the 25th we could see a ridge build in over the West Coast with a dry and milder pattern building in.

Stay tuned...BA