Storm Totals So Far:

The storm continues to have big ranges in snowfall totals again this morning.  As mentioned in the 4 PM update yesterday, the moisture streaming into Northern CA Tuesday didn't shift quite as far north as the models were showing.  It continued to clip the ski resorts NW of the lake with heavy snow all day and then shifted south through the area overnight as a front pushed through.  

That brought up to 2 feet of additional snow to the mountains NW of the lake the past 24 hours, with amounts as low as 2 inches SE of the lake.  Boreal and Sugar Bowl that stick out the farthest NW near Donner Summit were the big winners again.

I was at Homewood yesterday and it was snowing hard all afternoon.  They also picked up another 2 feet of snow.  I was at Squaw yesterday evening and there was over 2 feet of fresh snow at the base from the storm so far.  They picked up another 20 inches as well. 

As the snow pushed south through the basin overnight the rest of the ski resorts picked up snow.  Northeast of the lake we picked up 10-17 inches of fresh snow, Southwest of the lake 7-14 inches, and Southeast of the lake only 2 inches.  That's a crazy range across the lake.

Overall, the ski resorts on the north side picked up several inches over the 24-hour forecast, and south side of the lake picked up the forecast to a few inches under.  Storm totals have a big range from 10 inches up to 4.5+ feet so far.  Squaw and Homewood now have over 300 inches for the month!

The Rest of the Storm:

As mentioned above, the front that pushed through overnight pushed out the AR that was stalled over Northern CA the last 2 days dumping heavy precipitation.

This morning we have much more scattered snow showers.  That is expected to continue today (Wednesday) with a forecast for only 2-4 inches of snow on the mountains. 

Unfortunately, the winds are still strong today as the next front approaches, with gusts to 70+ mph expected to continue on the mountain tops into tonight.  That should continue to affect upper mountain lift operations.  Snow levels should rise to 6,500-7,000 feet today with some rain showers possible for lake level.

Later tonight we are expecting the next front to push through with a final wave of heavier snow pushing through.  We could see another 2-5 inches overnight on the mountains, and a final 3-7 inches Thursday before the storm clears out later in the day.  The snow levels should drop below lake level again later tonight into Thursday.  Here is the updated forecast for the rest of the storm.

Strong wind gusts to 60+ mph on the mountain tops are still possible on Thursday.  I'm hoping the ski resorts can start to open all of the terrain during the day, but wind prone mountains could still have some issues.

Weekend Storm:

We should see a quick break in the action on Friday, with some lighter winds finally.  We may see some sun with highs into the 30's.

Then later Friday night the next storm moves in. 

The forecast models continue a trend towards a faster speed with this storm.  We could see a period of heavier snow later Friday night into Saturday, with lighter snow showers for Sunday night.  The latest model runs now have only very light and scattered snow showers possible for Sunday with very little accumulation if any.

That latest model runs range from 1 to 1.5 inches of total precip near the crest with this storm.  Snow levels could start low around 5,500 feet, but then could rise just above lake level Saturday with some rain below 6,500 feet possible.  So snow ratios won't be very high on the mountains.  Here is the updated snowfall forecast for the weekend storm.  Not much different from yesterday.

The latest trend on the models is for a moist onshore flow to continue into Monday, with some clouds and scattered snow showers possibly continuing into Monday.  Highs continue to be in the 30's.

The next storm could move in as early as Tuesday and could move out as late as Thursday next week.  The GFS is faster starting Tuesday and ending by Wednesday night, and the European model is slower starting Tuesday night and lasting into Thursday.  

This storm could tap more moisture than the weekend storm and could push in a bit further north as well.  It's too early to look at snowfall amounts a week out, but we could be measuring in feet with this one if the latest model runs pan out.

If the European model is correct in lingering the snow showers into next Thursday, we may not see much of a break before the next storm could move in next Friday into the weekend of the 8th.

Fantasy Range:

As we go into the 2nd week of March we may see a pattern change from a strong ridge in the northeast Pacific and warmer storms cutting underneath into CA...

...into a pattern with a trough in the northeast Pacific with colder storms dropping into CA from the northwest.

Still watching to see if we could see a drier pattern the 3rd week of March, but the long-range models show the possibility of storms continuing out 2-3 weeks right now.

Stay tuned...BA

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