Storm Total So Far:

The storm performed pretty much as expected the past 24 hours.  We saw snow levels rise to around 6,500 feet yesterday and then back to lake level early this morning.  The heaviest snow fell NW of the lake again where 8-13 inches are being reported by the ski resorts the past 24 hours.  Over 5 feet of snow has fallen up near Donner Summit.

That is why there have been so many issues with clearing I-80.  It was closed for more than a day and has reopened this morning.  The rotary plows were causing avalanches back onto the road as they blew the snow up onto the sides of the hills.  Must be a very frustrating task at this point with the record snowfall.

Overall the past 24 hours the snow totals were close or just over the 24-hour forecast on the mountains.

With the AR pointed at the NW corner of the lake Monday and Tuesday and shadowing to the east side of the lake, there continues to be a big range in storm totals.  We have totals of 1-5+ feet so far.  That's one of the biggest storm total ranges I can remember. 

We have one more day to go before we have total storm amounts, but today is the last day of February so the record-breaking February totals are final.  Several ski resorts including Sugar Bowl and Squaw have claimed this as the snowiest month ever recorded.  I will have the official Snow Lab numbers next week.

The Forecast:

After some steady snow moved through overnight, the showers are more scattered this morning.

We should see snow showers continue through much of the day and then taper off tonight.  We could see a final 1-4 inches of snow on the mountains by tomorrow morning.  The snow levels look like they will hover around lake level today with highs into the 30's.  That should keep most roads just wet.

The winds are still strong this morning gusting over 70 mph on the ridge tops.  That will likely continue to affect some upper mountain lift operations today on the wind prone mountains.  We have a strong jet stream overhead today with strong wind gusts mixing down to lake level.

 

For Friday we should see a break in the precipitation with the sun possibly peeking out.  Highs still in the 30's.  The winds should come down some, but could still be gusting to 45+ mph on the ridgetops.

Weekend Storm:

The next storm spinning off the coast pushes in Friday night.

We should see snow begin to fall by later Friday night.  This storm is not expected to have as much shadowing, with snow having an easier time pushing into the entire Tahoe basin.  Snow levels could start down around 5,500 feet Friday night.  We could see 1-3 inches of snow by 4 a.m. Saturday.

The jet stream and heaviest precipitation with this storm look to be to our south.  The good news with that is we are on the colder side of the storm.  The latest model runs show snow levels possibly staying down around 6,000 feet Saturday during the heaviest precipitation with this storm.  We could see an additional 5-10 inches on the mountains Saturday, and 3-7 inches of wet snow at lake level.  Winds are not expected to be that strong either on Saturday, with ridgetop gusts to 30+ mph.

The snow should turn more showery Saturday night into Sunday.  Snow levels could also rise a little up to around 6,500 feet Saturday night into Sunday.  That could mean some rain showers for lake level.  On the mountains, we could see 1-4 inches Saturday night, and a final 1-2 inches Sunday.  The GFS model lingers very light snow showers into Sunday evening.

Overall, the forecast models are a little wetter this storm this morning.  The range for total precip amounts near the crest is 1.5 - 2.5 inches.  This is another Sierra Cement storm with snow ratios averaging around 11:1 at 8k.  Here is the updated snowfall forecast for the weekend storm.

Break for Monday:

Monday it looks like we could have another 1-day break in the storms like Friday.  We could see the sun peek out again with highs in the 30's.

Midweek Storm:

The hits just keep on coming as the next storm moves in Tuesday.

The latest model runs show this system pulling a bit more moisture than the weekend storm.  Snow levels could start below lake level Tuesday, but some warmer air pulling in could push them to 7,000 feet Tuesday night.  Then falling as colder air works in Wednesday.  There could be a 2nd wave that pushes in Thursday making this a 3-day storm.  It's too early for snowfall details, but early estimates are 1-3 feet on the mountains.

The long-range models continue to show the ridge in the northeast Pacific being replaced by a trough the 2nd week of March, with troughing continuing into the West Coast keeping the storm door open.

This pattern would allow colder storms to drop in from the Gulf of Alaska instead of warmer storms pushing under the ridge into CA.  The European model brings a series of cold storms in from Saturday the 9th into the week of the 11th. 

The latest GFS model runs show the possibility of cut-off lows forming as the storm become cut-off from the flow of the jet stream to the north.  March is cut-off low season as the jet stream begins to weaken and shift north with the change in the seasons.  The issue with cut-off lows is that they can stall off the coast until the next storm pushes them in, so forecasting the timing of their arrival is hard.  Forecasting may become tricky the 2nd week of March if the GFS is right. 

Fantasy Range:

There are some signs on the long-range ensemble runs that the trough in the eastern Pacific could pull back starting around mid-month.  That could allow high pressure to finally build in over the West Coast with a break in the storms.  However, some of the MJO forecasts show it staying active in phase 3 over the Indian Ocean which is a wet phase for CA in March.  So we will see...

Stay tuned...BA

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