So far the storm is performing as expected.  We were expecting 1-5 inches on the mountains overnight and that's what the ski resorts are reporting this morning.  We saw a band of heavier precip move through early this morning that dropped the snow over the Tahoe basin.  We are currently seeing a little break at 7 a.m., but heavier precipitation will push back in this morning.

Snow levels are currently hovering near lake level.  During the breaks in the heavier precipitation, we could see light rain showers at lake level, but the heavier precip should drag snow levels down this morning with wet snow down to lake level.

Here are the 5 a.m. snowfall reports.

We are expecting the heaviest precipitation to fall during the day today.  Then lighter showers tonight through Sunday before tapering off Sunday night.  The latest model runs have all trended slightly wetter through Sunday with around 2 inches of total precip near the crest.  The best chance for the heaviest snow looks to be SW of the lake today and then NW of the lake Sunday.

The winds are only gusting to 50 mph on the mountain tops, but now the ski resorts are dealing with rime ice building up on the lifts.  If it's not one thing it's another...  The temperatures have been rising in the upper elevations this morning so expecting wet snow for most elevations today.  Snow levels should rise to 6,500 feet this afternoon, and maybe to 7,000 feet during lighter precipitation.  Expect mostly rain at lake level after some snow this morning.

The snow levels should stay in the 6,500-7,000 foot range through Sunday morning and then should fall back below lake level later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. But that is after most of the precipitation has fallen.  Above 7k I have bumped the forecast a few inches in line with the wetter model runs.  On the mountains we could see 5-12 inches of snow today, 1-3 inches tonight, 1-6 inches Sunday, and a final 0-2 inches Sunday night.  Here is the updated forecast through Sunday night.

Finally A Nice Day:

It looks like we could finally see a sunny and mild day with light winds on Monday.  Highs into the 30's on the mountains to low 40's at lake level.  Get out and get your vitamin D before the next storm moves in.

Midweek Storm:

Some changes today with the midweek storm.  The AR streaming moisture into CA is still expected to be pointed into Southern CA by Tuesday, but the main low off the coast is slower to move into CA.  So we may stay fairly dry Tuesday with just some clouds and a chance for light showers later in the day.

The other trend is for the heaviest precipitation pushing in Tuesday night into Wednesday to be to our north as the system pushes inland.  So we are in a drier slot between the heavier precipitation over northern and southern CA.  The latest model runs have snow levels around 6,500-7,000 feet Tuesday night into Wednesday with rain showers at lake level and only 2-6 inches of snow on the mountains above 7,000 feet.

The better chance for some heavier snow looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front pushes through dropping snow levels below 5,500 feet. 

That could bring 3-7 inches of snow to lake level, and 3-10 inches to the mountains.  The WPC model is the wettest this morning and only has up to 3 inches of total precipitation near the crest by Friday morning on top of the 2 inches from this weekend's storm.

The GFS and European models only show up to 1.2 - 1.4 inches.  Their ensemble runs are averaging 1.8 - 2.3 so we could still trend wetter.  But for now, I'm using the latest GFS/Euro runs for the snowfall forecast with the trend of an initial split of the system. 

We will continue to fine tune this as we get a better idea of what will happen the next few days.  The good news is that the wetter portion of the storm on the latest model runs is with the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday when we see snow to lake level and drier more powdery snow on the mountains.

A weak system pushing through Friday could keep light snow showers going.  Colder air for Thursday into Friday could keep highs in the 20's on the upper mountains and 30's at lake level.

The European model has jumped on board with the GFS model in showing the next storm cutting off from the jet stream and forming a cut-off low that drops down well off the coast the weekend of the 9th.  That could mean we now see drier weather next weekend.  The first dry weekend in a while if the forecast holds.

The trough over the Eastern Pacific going into the 2nd week of February is forecast to stay there through mid-month.  That keeps the door open to colder storms pushing into CA.

We may see the next upstream system push the cut-off low off the coast inland around the middle of the week of the 11th.  Then we could see additional systems move into the Pacific NW and Northern CA through mid-month.  

The CPC's week 3-4 outlook shows drier weather for Southern CA and equal chances for Northern CA and the Pacific NW as the storm track shifts a bit north. 

If we do see additional storms, they should be a little more spaced out with a break between storms instead of non-stop storms like we have been seeing for the last 5 weeks.  They should also be colder than the storms we have been seeing the last 2 weeks.  

As we get later into the month of March and the jet stream continues to shift north and weaken, the chances of big storms become less and less.  We could continue to see storms into April, but the multi-foot dumps become less likely.

Stay tuned...BA

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