If you love Winter you will like this forecast as Winter wants to hang on into Spring this year.  We just had a storm that brought snow to the mountains the last 2 days, we have another one moving in Friday, several for next week, and maybe a few more the first week of April. 

Storm Recap:

We saw some light snow showers fire up along the mountains on the west side of the lake yesterday, and then more light snow pushed in from the east during the early morning hours this morning, with snow levels dipping down near 5,000 feet.

That brought a coating up to a few inches of additional snowfall over the past 24-hours on the mountains.  We were expecting 1-3 inches so no surprises this morning.  Storm totals of 1-7 inches for this weak system.  16/17 & 10/11 will jump up more this week as they had quite a bit of snow this week.  So we will need some bigger storms next week to try and catch up.

We were expecting 1-6 inches and got 1-7 inches with this storm.  The keep me honest reports are usually a little cleaner in these smaller storms.  We had 2 mountains come in under forecast, and 3 come in over but most picked up the forecast.

I had several people comment they were hearing the R-word a lot for the forecast this week.  You didn't hear that on here.  We had a little rain and a little snow at lake level, but this storm and the next are pretty cold for March with all snow up on the mountains.  Yesterday at Sugar Bowl was fun with 4 inches of fairly dry snow on the mountain and it was snowing off and on all day.

The Forecast:

The scattered showers should wind down this morning as the low to our south shifts away.  We should see clouds and some sun today with highs in the 30's on the upper mountains and 40's at lake level.

We will start the day dry on Friday with maybe some sun in the morning.  Clouds increase in the afternoon, and we could see light snow reach the mountains on the west side of the lake later in the afternoon.  By 4 PM not expecting more than a dusting to an inch.  The winds pick up slightly but they don't look strong enough to affect the lifts gusting to 40+ mph on the ridgetops.

Friday Night - Saturday Storm:

There is an impressive looking low-pressure center spinning in the eastern Pacific this morning.  That low won't be progressing east, but the front to the east of it will weaken and sweep through CA Friday night. 

The heaviest snow should fall Friday night as the front moves through.  Then snow showers could continue through Saturday morning, but mainly west of the lake along the crest.  We could start to clear out Saturday afternoon.  The snow levels on the latest model runs drop to lake level at the start of the storm, and then down to around 5,000 feet by Saturday morning.

Total precip amounts with this system still look pretty meager.  The latest model runs have a range of 3-6 tenths of an inch of total precipitation along the crest by Saturday afternoon, and lesser amounts east across the lake. 

The snow ratios look to be around 12:1 on average at 8,000 feet, so dry snow on the mountains.  That should squeeze about 1-4 inches of snow out on the mountains on the east side of the lake, and 2-6 on the west side.  A heavier snow shower Saturday morning could put a mountain or two along the crest over 7 inches up top.

Yesterday the wet base had frozen underneath the fresh powder, so it was bumpy off trail.  We may see some of that again for Saturday morning, but the fresh snow on the groomers should be a lot of fun.

Sunday Funday:

Sunday could be the nicest day of the week with sunny skies and highs in the 30's on the upper mountain to 40's at lake level.

Snowy Week Ahead:

Next week is still a headache to forecast, but in the end we should end up with some decent snowfall totals on the mountains.  We have low-pressure that will be spinning off the coast Monday through Tuesday night.  That should push a wave in Monday and another Tuesday night with snow continuing into Wednesday as the low moves inland.  The GFS stops there, but the European model pushes a final wave in Thursday into Thursday night.

The timing and precip amounts, and whether or not we see more snow Thursday, is all over the place on the model runs.  Luckily, it's too early to get into the details beyond Monday, but I attempted to on the 10-day forecasts on the ski resort pages.  For today we will just look at the details of the first wave on Monday.  

The European model kept us dry yesterday, but today it is pushing in more precipitation Monday more in line with the GFS.  The GFS is still the wettest model with 3x the Euro, and the Canadian model is the driest.  The range on all the models is 0.1 - 0.95 inches of total precip along the crest through Monday night.  The average is 0.6 inches.

We are expecting high winds with this storm to increase on Monday, likely affecting some upper mountain lifts.  The snow levels on the latest model runs keep snow levels below lake level for Monday.  The GFS shows the heaviest snow on Monday, and the Euro holds off until Monday night.  So at some point on Monday we should see some snow push in.  Here is the initial snowfall forecast for Monday-Monday night.

We will continue to fine-tune this as we get closer and get a better idea of timing and amounts possible for Monday.  

Tuesday - Thursday:

Most of the model runs show a break Tuesday before heavy snow pushes in Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The GFS ends the storm by Wednesday night, but the European model brings a final wave through Thursday into Thursday night with snow continuing.  We will continue to watch the trend over the next several days. 

Most of the models show 2-3 inches of total precip Monday-Thursday, which would be 1-3 feet of snow.  The latest trend has been colder with snow levels staying below lake level, but if additional moisture is drawn in from the south we could see slightly higher snow levels.  It looks like it is going to be an interesting and active week of forecasting.

Long-Range model runs continue to show a break the weekend of the 30th as high-pressure building in over CA briefly.

With high pressure to the north over Alaska the storm track should continue to be suppressed into the West Coast.  So as soon as more storms move into the West Coast, we could have an active first week of April.

The two-week GFS ensemble mean forecast for total precipitation continues to trend wetter each day.

We may see a day or two of nice weather between these storms.  But overall I'm not seeing any signs yet of a prolonged dry period or Spring showing up yet in the long-range.  Not good news if you are done with Winter, good news for those of us looking for a few more powder days before we put the powder skis and boards away, and good news for CA which is no longer in drought status in the entire state!

Stay tuned...BA