The big story this morning is the winds. Northeast winds this morning behind the cold front are gusting to 100+ mph over some of the ridges. 

I looked at the webcams this morning to see who may have gotten a dusting overnight, as the cold front that moved through looked very dry on radar. Most locations didn't seem to get any snow except southwest of the lake near Echo and Sierra at Tahoe where a dusting was on the ground.

Behind the front, the winds turned northeast overnight and increased into this morning. We began to see some upslope snow showers develop over the mountains on the east side of the lake, with light snow falling at Mt. Rose and Heavenly.

Some of those showers have been making it to the west side of the lake this morning. When I was checking the road cams for dustings I caught a snow shower hitting Squaw this morning.

The snow showers look to have diminished some right as I'm posting this. It is hard to see the snow showers on radar with the low-level clouds and moisture. Using low-level radar it bounces off of the mountains making them look like precipitation but you can make out the light snow moving in from the northeast this morning.

The strong northeast winds are expected to continue through the day on Sunday, continuing to gust to 70+ mph over the ridges and likely closing some upper mountain lifts. It is cold this morning in the teens on the upper mountains and 20s at lake level. Highs warming into the 20s on the upper mountains and 30s at lake level, but the winds will make it feel much colder.

The east flow should continue to create clouds over the mountains on the east side of the lake as the moist air is lifted and cooled. That should bring mostly cloudy skies for the mountains on the east side of the lake today, with clouds and sun for the rest of the area. The latest model runs still show snow showers continuing over the mountains on the east side of the lake through this evening.

The total precip amounts are enough for 1-2 inches of snow. So far Mt. Rose is only reporting trace amounts of snow with a coating on the tables on the base cams. It's hard to forecast these upslope snow showers so we will have to see if showers continue to pop up today with more light snow.

Monday - Thursday:

Expecting mostly sunny skies Monday through Thursday with some warming each day. Highs in the 30s on the upper mountains and 40s at lake level Monday. The winds continue to gust from the northeast on Monday up to 40+ mph over the ridges, continuing to make it feel a bit colder.

Then lighter winds expected for Tuesday - Thursday with highs into the 40s as high pressure builds along the West Coast. Even 50s possible at lake level by Wednesday - Thursday.

Friday into President's Weekend:

No changes today to the forecast for next weekend. The latest forecast model runs continue to show two troughs dropping into the West from the north. Both would bring a shot of colder air and gusty winds for Friday and next Sunday. 

The European model still has the ridge farther off the coast with the troughs digging down farther west over CA. That would be a slightly colder scenario with a chance for light snow with each. The GFS and Canadian models show the trough a bit east with less of a chance for light snow with each. 

Right now, if you are coming up for the holiday weekend, I would expect some colder air Friday and Sunday and gusty winds possible through the weekend on the mountains. Maybe the chance for a dusting of snow Friday and Sunday. We will fine-tune the forecast as we go through the week.

Going into the week of the 17th the models remain at odds with the European model runs continuing to keep the ridge slightly off the coast with the chance for more cold weak systems from the north. The GFS & Canadian models continue to show the ridge over the coast with a drier and milder forecast. Either way, the ensemble mean runs that average together dozens of ensemble models, all show very light amounts of precip possible over the next 10 days...

I'm not sure I have ever seen the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) put out a day 6-10 forecast that had above-average precip in every state but CA, with CA the only state having below average precip! Alaska included.

Fantasy Range:

No good signs yet in the long-range. The MJO is forecast to sit in the Western Pacific. The PNA pattern is now being forecast to flip positive the week of the 24th. That would be a pattern with the ridge over the West instead of off the West Coast. Still a dry pattern and possibly drier and milder than the one we have now. At least now we have shots of cold and dustings.

If nothing changes, it looks like we could finish out February as the driest month and least snowy month so far this season. The ski areas have only reported 2-4 inches so far this month. We saw on average 40 inches in November, 100 inches in December, and 40 inches in January. There's no way to know if we will see a Miracle March or not, but I'm praying for one. 

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. For those that don't actually read our forecasts and say that we like to hype storms when we get them, don't forget we equally hype dry spells (or neither)...