Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 4 years ago February 10, 2020

We're Halfway There...

Summary

- Expecting mostly sunny skies for Monday-Thursday as high pressure builds back in. Highs rebounding into the 30s on the mountains Monday and 40s at lake level. Then 40s on the upper mountains and near 50 at lake level Wednesday - Thursday. - A weak system could move down from the north Friday Sunday. Each will bring a shot of colder air. Highs dropping into the 30s Friday, 40s Saturday, and 30s for Sunday. We could see a dusting of snow with each, with some models suggesting a few inches of snow possible with the Sunday system. - The dry pattern may continue through the week of the 17th. We could see another weak system early next week. But overall a dry pattern that shows no signs of ending over the next 2 weeks right now.

Short Term Forecast

Sunday Storm Recap:

We saw a cold day on Sunday with strong northeast winds and scattered snow showers. We didn't end up seeing enough moisture for much upslope snowfall on the east side of the lake. Reports of only a dusting to a coating of snow from Mt. Rose down to Mammoth.

Ridgetop winds were gusting well over 100 mph. We saw high-end gusts close to 150 mph on top of some mountains. The NWS Reno reported a gust of 209 mph off the sensor on top of Kirkwood which would be a state record, beating Squaw's record of 199 mph a couple of years ago. They were questioning that reading due to the sensor giving some other bogus readings recently.

We may not have had 200 mph gusts, but that doesn't discount the very strong winds we did see. Some readers reported to me that the winds by Kirkwood sounded like a freight train and multiple trees were blowing over. Several ski areas closed for the day due to the winds. Wind chills were well below zero.

Halfway There:

If the average ski season for the ski areas is the 3rd week of November until the 3rd week of April, then we are about halfway through the ski season today. We are also livin on a prayer to get through the 2nd half of the season with some snow.

If you've been following along you know that I've pretty much thrown out February for a chance to see any big storms, unless we can get one the last few days of the month. No changes to the 2-week forecast this morning as it continues to show a pattern that will bring below-average precipitation chances. The pattern may shift from one dry pattern to another in the long-range.

Monday - Thursday:

High-pressure is building back in along the West Coast through Thursday. Temperatures still a little cold on the mountains today with northeast winds still gusting to 40+ mph. Highs in the 30s on the mountains and 40s at lake level. Lighter winds with temperatures warming into the 40s on the mountains and near 50 at lake level Tuesday through Thursday.

President's Weekend:

We are still watching for two cold troughs to drop down from the north Friday and again Sunday. 

trough

That would bring a shot of colder air both days. Highs dropping back into the 30s. Saturday we may see high-pressure build back in briefly with highs back into the 40s and sunny skies.

Friday we may just see some clouds as most model runs show only a few flakes at best with the cold front. Maybe a dusting on some mountains. Then on Sunday, the last few runs of the GFS model try to suggest a slightly wetter scenario with this system tracking down a bit farther west and south.

gfs

But most of the model runs and ensembles show another weak system with only a dusting up to a couple of inches of snow possible on the mountains.

gefs

The ridge off the coast and trough over the West may hold into President's Day & next Tuesday, with another weak system possibly brushing us.

Extended Forecast

For the 2nd half of next week into the last week of February the pattern may begin to shift, but only from one dry pattern to another.

We have been stuck in a negative EPO pattern recently, with the ridge in the northeast Pacific and trough over the West. Cold air and storms have been dropping down the east side of the ridge into the trough. We have been right on the edge of both with shots of cold air and dustings of snow, while just to our north and east in the Rockies they have been getting feet of snow. The forecasts are showing a flip week 2 and beyond to a positive EPO pattern.

epo

That would suggest a pattern with a trough in the northeast Pacific and a ridge over the West later in the month, as many of the ensemble runs are suggesting.

2 week pattern

Still a dry pattern for CA, but likely milder without the cold systems dropping down from the north. The storm track shifting more into Canada and down into the eastern U.S. Here is a look at the 2-week snowfall forecast.

snowfall

Fantasy Range:

Continuing to watch the long-range patterns for a change that could lead to storms for CA. Still not much hope in the 2-week forecast. The long-range models are suggesting that the active phase of the MJO could move through the eastern Pacific later in the month, and possibly continuing into the Indian Ocean into March which are the wetter phases for CA.

mjo

We need the trough in the northeast Pacific to dig farther southeast towards the West Coast to push storms into CA, or for the ridge to set up far enough off the coast with a trough over the West Coast opening the door to storms from the northwest. We will continue watching to see if the pattern could set up right for storms for CA in March. Even if it's not a Miracle March with hundreds of inches, hoping we can get a pattern with at least some significant storms.

The CFSv2 keeps hinting at a wetter pattern for the first week of March, but this is too far out to believe right now.

cfsv2

We are sitting around 58% of average today for snowpack and total precipitation. Upper mtn total snowfall around 79% of average and falling. The ski areas have around 44% of their seasonal snowfall averages as of the halfway point in the season and should be around 55% right now. The good news is that we still have good decent coverage and the reservoirs are full. The bad news is who knows when we will see a significant storm. Let's hope the GFS is right and we can at least get several inches of fresh snow on Sunday.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. The climate models are showing a La Nina going into next season...

la nina

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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