Not a lot of changes in the week 1 forecast as we are expecting mostly dry weather today through Friday and possibly through next Saturday. Week 2 could be slightly more active but no confidence in any storms of significance yet.

Saturday:

We will see sun and clouds today. There is a small AR pointed at the Pacific NW bringing more clouds and precipitation to our north. So we could see some clouds on the southern edge today.

Ridgetop winds this morning are gusting from the southwest up to 40+ mph this morning. Not expecting them to increase much more through today, but it is a little windy today on the exposed peaks. Temperatures in the 20s this morning warming into the 40s on the mountains and near 50 at lake level.

Sunday:

For Sunday a trough is digging south into the West. The trend continues to be slightly east with little to no precipitation this far south on the latest model runs.

Expecting cloudy skies with some sun possible & gusty winds. Ridgetop winds could gust from the southwest up to 70+ mph during the day on exposed peaks. Highs in the 40s but likely cooling some in the afternoon behind the dry front.

Monday - Friday:

Expecting a dry pattern with mostly sunny skies for the upcoming week. We start cool with highs in the 30s for the upper elevations and 40s at lake level through Wednesday, along with a cool east wind gusting to 30+ mph on the mountaintops.

Then for Thursday and Friday, we could see lighter winds and slighter warmer temperatures, with highs into the 40s and near 50 at lake level. Overall a dry 7-day period today through Friday.

The pattern starts to change slightly next weekend into the week of the 24th. The GFS model is back to showing an area of low pressure off the CA coast Friday that meanders into SoCal next Saturday.

The other models show it dropping farther south. We will continue to watch this feature this week. If low pressure does end up in southern CA Saturday, we could see some clouds, slightly cooler temperatures, and the chance for light showers popping up over the Sierra. Here is a look at the 1-week total precipitation forecast showing the ensembles are seeing a chance for light precip next Saturday.

Then next Sunday we are still watching the chance for another trough to drop into the West.

The trend on the latest model runs is for high pressure off the coast to be a bit farther West, with the track of this system more from the NW instead of the north with previous systems. This is a wetter track but the question will be how far south into CA does the system dig. Some model runs like last night's 0z GFS run were pretty wet. But most model runs show us on the southern edge with lighter precipitation chances next Sunday. We will be watching this system all week as well.

Fantasy Range:

The week of the 24th the GFS model shows the ridge closer to the West Coast with drier weather again. 

But some of its ensemble runs and the European model show the high-pressure ridge off the coast but a bit West of what the GFS is showing. That may allow more cut-off lows to meander south down the West Coast and into CA. These systems are cut-off from the jet stream and hard to predict on track, timing, and how much moisture they will have.

Some model runs show the chance that some of these systems could pull in some decent moisture before moving into CA the week of the 24th...

But most model runs show only a chance for weaker systems with light precipitation chances. Here is a look at the 2-week total precipitation forecast on the GFS ensemble mean model, which brings us through the last day of February. You can see weak systems starting next weekend through the end of the month may only bring meager amounts of precip in total. Not totally dry, but well below average for this time of year.

So we will be watching the pattern for the week of the 24th as well to see if we could see any more storms before we close out the month.

March:

We are still watching the pattern going into March to see if we could see a wetter pattern compared to February (not saying much). The long-range models continue to suggest the ridge shifting farther NW in the northeast Pacific back towards more of -EPO pattern, with negative heights over CA as we go into the first week of March.

That may continue the pattern of cut-off lows dropping down the coast. Usually, we see cut-off low season start later in March. Maybe some of these systems could tap more moisture and send it into CA? The updated CPC forecast for weeks 3-4 now shows average to above-average precipitation for most of CA.

I'd like to see the ridge shift farther NW in March out towards 150-160w south of the Aleutians to open the door to wetter storms from the NW. The European weeklies had suggested we head towards that pattern, but it remains to be seen... At least the long-range models suggest we could at least see a more active pattern for CA. We will have to see, this is all still in the "Fantasy" range of the models.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S.

Of note is the record positive AO (Arctic Oscillation) pattern we saw this past week, with the forecast for another record positive reading this upcoming week. The positive AO is a strong circulation pattern around the Arctic that bottles up all of the cold air over the Arctic. Look at how cold the forecast is by the end of the month.

That is keeping the pattern fairly mild over the U.S. the next 2 weeks. The AO forecast is trending negative going into March. That could release that very cold air to the south. It may have little effect on our weather, but it could have an effect on the overall pattern setup. I'm just mentioning it because of the record AO readings. There is also a storm in the North Atlantic headed towards Scotland that is forecast to see record low-pressure readings.

Maybe I'm just bored with our weather so I'm looking for interesting weather elsewhere...