We are just getting started with this storm this morning. Only minor adjustments to the forecast, mainly to bring in heavier snow for Saturday which increases the snowfall forecast a few inches. We have a 3-4 day storm that will bring heavy snow and gusty winds through the weekend.

We started with strong winds last night with ridgetop gusts over 100 mph. Those have come down some this morning as heavier snow begins to fall over the mountains. Light snow showers began falling over the mountains overnight. The radar is beginning to fill in this morning and will continue to do so throughout the day.

Overnight most ski areas picked up 1-3 inches of snow. The snow started a little earlier southwest of the lake over Sierra at Tahoe & Kirkwood where they picked up 4-5 inches overnight. Then a dusting from Dodge Ridge down to Mammoth.

Saturday - Sunday Forecast:

Low pressure is spinning off the Pacific NW coast this morning. The low will move very slowly down the coast through the weekend directing moisture at the Sierra. The cold air and lift from the mountains will help to squeeze out copious amounts of precipitation over the Sierra.

Ridgetop winds are expected to continue gusting to 70+ mph through the day and possible continuing to gust to 60+ mph through Sunday. That will close some upper mountain lifts Saturday and maybe a few on Sunday. We will have to see if the winds come down later Sunday as they are expected to drop off by Monday.

Temperatures in the 30s at lake level and 20s on the mountains. Snow levels are expected to hover around 5000-5500 ft. Saturday and drop to 4500-5000 ft. Saturday night. Then sit in that range for Sunday before dropping as low as 3500 ft. Saturday night.

The latest forecast model runs have increased precipitation amounts for today (Saturday) which has increased total precipitation amounts through Sunday night slightly. They have also shifted the aim of the heaviest precip south slightly as well. Yesterday they were showing the heaviest precip to be from just north of Tahoe to just north of Mammoth. This morning they show from Tahoe down to Mammoth. No change for Tahoe but increased for Mammoth.

The range on the latest model runs show 2.5 - 5.5 inches of additional liquid falling west of the lake along the crest by early Monday morning. The 100 model average for total precipitation is 3.64 inches.

Snow ratios running 10-13:1 Saturday and increasing to 12-16:1 Saturday night. That will bring a powdery snow on the mountains, and help to boost the amount of snowfall we can get from the precipitation amounts.

For the total snowfall forecast for Saturday through Sunday night, it is a few inches higher than yesterday with the wetter model runs, even subtracting out the 1-3 inches that fell overnight.

Monday - Tuesday:

The area of low pressure spinning down the coast is forecast to be along the CA coast still on Monday. That should continue steady snow showers during the day. Then as the low continues to move south Monday night into Tuesday the chances for snow showers diminishes as they become more scattered. 

It stays cold with highs in the 20s on the mountains and 30s at lake level. The good news is that the winds should drop off for Monday making for a great day to ski the peaks. 

Total precipitation amounts on for Monday - Tuesday on the latest model runs haven't changed much. Most of the precipitation falls during the day on Monday. The range is an additional 0.5 - 1.2 inches of liquid near the crest over the 2 days. The 100 model average is 0.95 inches. Here is the WPC model's total precip forecast through Tuesday.

Snow levels look to remain in the 4000-5000 ft. range. Snow ratios around 11-14:1 on the mountains Monday. Total additional snowfall still looks to be around 8-18 inches on the mountains Mon - Tue.

Wednesday - Friday:

The storm moves east through Southern CA Wed - Thu as the next storm drops down the West Coast Thu - Fri. That keeps a chance for scattered snow showers around, but we should see some sun and clouds with lighter winds and highs remaining in the 20s & 30s.

The trough continues to sit over the West Coast into next weekend.

The system dropping south down the coast by the end of the week is still forecast to move into CA next weekend, bringing a chance for more snow.

We will have to watch the track with this storm as well to see how much precipitation it could bring next weekend.

Fantasy Range:

The trough may stay over the West Coast through the end of the month. Maybe even shift a bit off the coast with the ridge in the northeast Pacific shifting a bit west, which could open up the door a bit more to storms moving in from the northwest.

The latest model runs show another storm moving into CA at the beginning of the week of the 23rd...

...with additional storms parading into the West Coast behind that. The CFSv2 and other models continue to show above-average precipitation for CA week 2.

We will have to see if the forecast continues to hold for the rest of the month and we see more storms after this one.

We hit the criteria to have a Miracle March by having well below average snowfall to start the month. My belief is that you have to see 100+ inches of snowfall during the month to then qualify as a Miracle March. It's possible we could see that if the pattern remains active for the 2nd half of the month...

Stay tuned...BA

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