The weather has been warm and dry with the exception of a few isolated thunderstorms over the last few days. One of which started a new fire to the south in Mono county. We saw a few days with clearer skies this week, but the smoke is still hanging around from nearby fires.

As we head into the first week of September a strong ridge builds along the West Coast.

That will continue the dry weather and we will likely see even warmer temperatures through the first week of September. Highs into the mid and upper 80s at lake level. Until the fires in northern CA are out we could continue to see smoke blow into the Tahoe Basin as well. The fire danger will increase as well, so let's hope we don't see another big outbreak...

The ridge is forecast to weaken with the center of the highest heights shifting north going into the 2nd week of September. So the temperatures may not be quite as warm. But the long-range models keep CA dry through mid-September.

So it looks like we won't be seeing any early snowfall in the first half of September like we did last year...

We will continue to watch the long-range models now that we are headed into the fall season. Early season snow or dusting on the peaks can start at any time as we go through September and into October. Aspen, CO reported a dusting of snow on the peaks yesterday.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range climate models show some light precipitation for CA later in September. As we go through the fall season the jetstream over the northern Pacific Ocean will start to strengthen and dip farther south with time.

The CFSv2 climate model shows a big flip in October for precipitation. Take it with a grain of salt, but we will be watching the long-range closely now...

The Winter Season:

We have been talking a little bit about the upcoming winter season in each week's post. We have been talking about the weak/moderate La Nina being forecast and looking at sea surface temperature and other patterns setting up for the season.

A typical La Nina usually sees above-average precipitation and colder temperatures in the Pacific NW and into at least the northern Rockies. That could bring a pattern similar to the weatherbell.com winter idea which is similar to a typical La Nina season for northern CA where we are right on the edge of the above/below average snowfall line.

With the warm water in the Indian Ocean into the far Western Pacific, and then cold in the ENSO zones, we could see an active MJO pattern over the warmer areas that fizzles over the colder. That could favor a Western trough pattern this winter at times. The warmest water in the northeast Pacific seems to be shifting farther west to the north of Hawaii.

That makes me feel a little better about any stubborn ridges, and it could help to push the cold and storm track a bit farther south into northern CA and the central Rockies this winter. Of course, the track record of seasonal forecasts is poor as I usually recap annually.

https://opensnow.com/news/post/did-anyone-accurately-predict-the-2019-20-winter-season

We will continue to watch how things develop this fall. I'll have my analog forecast out by the end of October which will look at the average snowfall historically under similar long-term winter patterns.

Stay tuned...BA