A lot to write about this morning. First, I want to recap the weekend storm. Second, we need to talk about the storms coming starting as early as Thursday night. The long-range continues to look active. There are a lot of fo details to iron out, but I'm sure with the recent snow and the forecast we will start to hear the hype train in the distance today.

(design from one of the shirts in the Tahoe Weather Nerd Store)

Storm Recap:

We don't have all of the final totals from the ski areas, but I have most through late Sunday morning when most of the snow had ended. We did end up seeing a lake effect band set up off of the lake by mid-morning and continue for several hours, aimed at the SW corning of the lake.

(radar image from the OpenSnow maps page)

That prompted a Snow Squall Warning from the NWS and it was snowing at a rate of 2"+ per hour under the band. It's possible we saw storm totals up to 2 feet in the SW corner of the lake on the mountains. I was standing up on Homewood ski resort and could easily see the lake effect snow band forming across the lake and depositing snow to the southwest.

The ski area that would have had the best shot of seeing some snow from that band would have been Sierra at Tahoe. We already had higher snowfall amounts south of the lake from a heavier band of snow that sat over that area early Saturday morning which I talked about yesterday. We have reports of 12-18 inches from the mountains south of the lake, and 8-12+ inches at lake level from readers sending in reports!

The north side of the lake picked up the expected forecast of 7-11 inches on the mountains and 3-7 inches at lake level. We knew this system was cold and could produce overages under heavier bands. I went into a long ramble about it in Saturday's post. Here is a look at the snowfall reports I was able to get so far.

You can see that Sierra got hit with the heaver band early Saturday morning, and then additional snowfall likely from the lake effect snow. A nice start to the snow season!

Kirkwood & Heavenly aren't reporting yet since they are closed, but their social media accounts for both mountains said "over a foot" of new snow fell on the mountain. Thank you to everyone for reporting your totals in the comments for all of us!

It is cold this morning with overnight temps that dropped into the single digits. The ski areas have been making snow around the clock through the weekend and into this morning. They will be able to make snow for most of today as well. Mt. Rose is looking snowy this morning and will likely try to be the first to open around the lake.

Mammoth mountain is planning to open this Saturday the 14th. They picked up 15 inches and are making snow as well. So we will have to see when ski areas will confirm opening dates. The fresh snow and cold will help, and so will the forecast for more storms on the way!

The Forecast:

We have a few days ahead of drier weather. It stays cold with highs in the 30s at lake level and 20s on the mountains Monday, and then 40s & 30s Tue-Thu. But the trough remains over the west and is forecast to retrograde westward over the next 7-10 days. That will keep the storm door open, and to wetter storms.

Thursday Night - Friday System:

We could see the next system push precipitation into the northern Sierra as early as Thursday night. The latest forecasts model runs are at odds on how wet this next system will be. The GFS is the wettest with up to 8 tenths of an inch of total precip Thursday night near the crest, while the European model has only up to 1 tenth. 

This first system brings in some warmer air and some of the snow that could break out Thursday night could be from the warmer air overrunning the cold dome of air in the Tahoe basin. The latest model runs try to hold snow levels just below lake level. We will have to fine-tune the forecast over the next few days as we try to get better model consensus on the Thursday night into Friday system.

Friday Night - Saturday System:

The GFS model is actually wetter with the Thursday night system than the Friday night system on the latest runs. But most models, including the Euro below, are weak with the first system and wetter with the 2nd system that is forecast to move in Friday night into Saturday. 

We will be fine-tuning the forecast for this system all week as well. It is a little more interesting as the models show it tapping moisture from across the Pacific with a weak/moderate AR (atmospheric river) pointed towards the area.

Most model runs clear us out during the day on Saturday. The total precipitation amounts through Saturday on the latest model runs range from 1-2 inches of total precipitation west of the lake near the crest, with up to 1"+ to the east side of the lake. The total model average this morning is around 1.3 inches. Here is a look a the WPC's blended model through Saturday.

Snow levels fluctuate on the models, but they try to keep the peak right around lake level. That may keep most of the precipitation on the mountains as snow into Saturday. We have a long week ahead of fine-tuning the forecast. Especially with possible AR events, we can see the models increase/decrease precip amounts depending on the placement and speed of the systems. 

We are within the 5-day window through Saturday morning, so here is the initial snowfall forecast based on an average of the latest model runs, and assuming the snow levels stay below lake level.

We have a fun week ahead of trying to nail down the forecast. I will be traveling all day Wednesday from very early in the morning, so I may have a guest forecaster fill-in that day.

We could see a short break Saturday into Sunday, but the latest model runs show another storm possibly pushing in by Sunday night. Possibly with another AR aimed at us...

This is still 6.5 days out with plenty of time to change, but looking at the latest model runs this system could raise snow levels to 7000 ft. or higher. So we will keep an eye on it. For the upper elevations, it could continue to add to the early season snowpack.

We may see another break early next week, but it may not last long either with the storm door remaining open.

Fantasy Range:

No changes to the long-range forecast. The long-range models continue to show lower heights and trough near the West Coast late into the month. That could keep the active pattern going. I'll let you know as soon as I see a change to that in the long-range.

The latest model runs suggest the possibility of a 3rd AR pointed at Tahoe by the middle of next week.

The triple threat of ARs in the 5-10 day window is causing the 10-day total precipitation forecasts to start looking pretty impressive.

That is going to cause a lot of hype in the weather world. Model riders hang on tight, here we go...Choo...Choo...

Stay tuned...BA

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