The dry pattern continues. We will see mostly sunny skies with highs in the 50s at lake level and 40s in the upper elevations through the weekend. Winds are lighter Thursday with ridgetop winds increasing to 40+ mph from the west Friday. Then lighter for the weekend.

The Flip to Cold:

By Monday the ridge over CA, responsible for the dry and mild weather, will begin to shift off the West Coast.

That will still keep us dry but will allow colder air to start pushing in from the north/northeast. We may see a chilly and windy day Monday with northeast winds increasing to 50+ mph over the ridges. Highs dropping into the 40s at lake level and 30s for the upper mountains.

Most of next week should remain mostly sunny and colder. The forecast models do show some upslope snow showers trying to develop from the easterly flow Mon-Tue, but they look to remain very light and to our south right now. Overall a dry pattern for another week.

The forecast for the rest of January hasn't changed much over the last 2 weeks. The long-range models continue to show the ridge shift farther west away from the West Coast as we go later into the month. By next Friday the trough is starting to shift towards the West Coast.

That may start to allow some cold but weak systems to drop down from the north by the weekend of the 22nd-24th.

Fantasy Range:

We are still watching for the pattern to continue to shift going into the last 7 days of the month, with the trough establishing itself over the West Coast.

If that forecast continues to hold, we should see the storm door open more to storms moving in from the northwest with a track over the ocean and more moisture.

This is not a surprise, we have been watching this shift in the pattern through the month on the models for a couple of weeks now. We are just continuing to wait out this dry spell we also saw coming. We flip cold next week, and hopefully wet as well the following week. The ensemble mean runs continue to show increased precipitation through the 4th week of January.

We continue to like the agreement and consistency on the models, as well as the teleconnection support for the colder and eventually stormier pattern as we go later into the month. In the meantime, while we await the return of winter, I have one more set of photos that readers have shared with us from past seasons.

A Look Back:

First, we have a picture Juan sent in of the lake during Jan-10.

Elizabeth sent in this photo of the road to Kirkwood from Mar-11 during the historic 2010/11 season.

Spencer was also at Kirkwood during Mar-11 and sent in this photo of his dog. He mentioned that his dog is not a small dog.

Things took a turn the opposite way the following season. Bruce sent in this photo of Alpine during Jan-12.

We had several dry seasons with below-average snowpack in January. Jeremy sent in this photo taken from Half Dome during Jan-15.

But that changed during the 2016/17 season. Jeremy was at Alpine Meadows 2 years later during Jan-17 and decided to stick his pole into the snow to take a measurement.

2017 is a favorite of readers for obvious reasons as the snow continued to pile up. Here is a photo that Veronica sent in of her dog during Jan-17.

Here is a photo Louie sent in of his house in Tahoma from Jan-17 as the snow continues to fall and residents struggled to keep up with clearing their driveways.

The snow was almost too deep at times for skiing. Michael sent in this photo of himself in chest-deep snow at Homewood during Jan-17.

And here is what the view looked like out the window of Michael's house when he returned home to continue digging out.

There was plenty of snow for the kids to build forts. Amy sent in this photo from Jan-17.

But the best part was the powder days and the views. Raul took this shot of Heavenly buried in snow during Jan-17.

The snow continued into February. Ted sent in this photo from Kirkwood of the deep snow in January, that was even deep by Feb-17.

Miles was also enjoying 2017 and sent in this photo of his house in Squaw Valley wearing a tall snow hat.

But a dramatic difference a year later as Miles was riding the lift at Squaw during Jan-18.

2019 started off a little slow as well, but we saw a record February. Alyssa sent in this photo from the Safeway parking lot in Truckee during Feb-19.

The snow continued into March. Nick was riding the lift at Sky Tavern in a white-out during Mar-19.

The snow depth was deep by the time the snow slowed during mid-March. Scott sent in this photo of a healthy snowpack at the Tahoe Donner cross country center during Mar-19.

Jason was taking a drive down 88 during March 2019 and snapped this photo of the impressive walls of snow.

One of the snowiest places in the area is Serene Lake up near Donner Summit. During March of 2019, a part-time resident came up and had Erik try to help them find their driveway and house. He didn't say whether or not they ever found it...

And once again someone had to send in a photo from late March 2020 to rub it in how much snow was falling after the ski resorts closed. Scott sent in this photo of his tractor in the snow in Beckwourth. He wanted you to know that his tractor is not small.

That's all the teasing for today. Thank you to everyone who sent in photos this week for us to enjoy while we wait for winter to return. I'm traveling this week but will be back in time for the snow. I will likely take a break while traveling again for Friday, but will update again Saturday when hopefully we have a storm to talk about within the 1-week window.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. We updated our automated snowfall forecast formulas for the ski resort pages that we will be able to test out once the snow flies. Here is an article that Sam wrote up yesterday explaining the change and our methods we continue to fine-tune that we think will make our forecasts the most accurate!

https://opensnow.com/news/post/opensnow-forecast-data-update

The dry spell will give you plenty of time to listen to episodes of The Flakes Podcast. On this week's show, we talk about the snowfall reports for each ski region, where we stand for snowfall and what history has shown, the Polar Vortex & its effect on our weather, and how snow could bring back the happy vibe.

Listen below via Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.