Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 2 years ago April 24, 2021

Weekend Storm Update...

Summary

A late-season storm moves in Saturday with gusty winds and a few showers possible. Then snow showers to lake level later Saturday night into Sunday Night. Clearing Monday with a few scattered snow showers possible. Then drier and warming by Tuesday through the end of the week.

Short Term Forecast

There wasn't much change to the forecast as of Friday morning. I was traveling with no internet access so I wasn't able to get out an update. Over the past 24 hours, the forecast models have started to trend downward with precipitation amounts with the storm. Still expecting a cold storm with accumulating snow on the mountains.

Saturday:

For Saturday we have some clouds and gusty winds with a few scattered showers. Highs in the 40s at lake level and 30s for the upper mountains. We are already seeing ridgetop gusts to 70+ mph this morning. That will continue today and will likely affect upper mountain lifts. Snow levels around 7000-7500 ft. with any scattered showers.

Saturday Night - Sunday Night:

Most of the precipitation looks to hold off until after midnight. We could ee a few scattered snow showers Saturday evening then a better chances for more numerous snow showers during the early morning hours Sunday through the day on Sunday. Snow showers should linger into Sunday night before tapering off by Monday morning.

storm

Here is a look at our forecast radar showing the steadier precipitation pushing in after midnight.

forecast radar

Snow levels fall as low as 5000 ft. by Sunday morning, and then should hover between 5000-6000 ft. around the region through the day on Sunday. Then falling again Sunday night down to 4000 ft. or lower by the end of the storm.

Ridgetop winds will still be gusty Sunday morning but the latest model runs now show the winds coming down some on Sunday with ridgetop gusts only 40-50 mph by afternoon. Then falling off for Monday. Highs only in the 30s on Sunday to lake level.

Total precipitation amounts now range between 0.55 - 0.80 inches along the crest with up to 0.35 inches on the east side of the lake. The total model average has dropped from 1 inch along the crest over the last few days down to 0.7 inches this morning. Here is a look at the WPC's blended model forecast showing no more 2-inch amounts in the foothills.

wpc

Why would we expect anything less of this season than for the last storms to trend down at the last minute like they have done all season? Snow ratios will still average around 12:1 at 8k for the storm with 13-17:1 snow ratios at the end Sunday night with a sprinkling of powder on top. Here is the final snowfall forecast for this storm.

snowfall forecast

The best shot at the high end or a mountain getting over the high end looks to be south-southwest of the lake. If the storm doesn't continue to trend down we should still see a fun morning on Monday with several inches of fresh snow to track up on the slopes that still have snow to accumulate on top of.

Monday should start to clear with some sun and a few scattered snow showers possible. Highs in the 30s on the mountains and 40s at lake level with lighter winds.

High Pressure:

By Tuesday high pressure is building in over CA. We start our chilly for Tuesday with 40s for highs on the mountains and 50s for lake level. Then we warm up quickly through the end of the week with sunny skies and highs into the 60s with 50s for the higher elevations above 8000 ft.

ridge

Extended Forecast

The long-range models show a trough digging south into the Great Basin during the 1st week of May.

trough

That may just cool us down slightly and if any weak systems drop into the trough it could bring enough moisture for afternoon showers to pop up some days.

I think we are pretty much done with accumulating snow after this weekend, but we will keep an eye out for any very late-season storms that try to bring snow...

Stay tuned...BA

Announcements

Ski Resort Closing Dates: 

Squaw/Alpine - Early-Mid May (tentative)

Mammoth - 5/31 (tentative)

Mt. Shasta - CLOSED

Tahoe Donner - CLOSED

Boreal - CLOSED

Sugar Bowl - CLOSED

Northstar - CLOSED

Homewood - CLOSED

Mt. Rose - CLOSED

Diamond Peak - CLOSED

Heavenly  - CLOSED

Sierra at Tahoe - CLOSED

Kirkwood - CLOSED

Bear Valley - CLOSED

Dodge Ridge - CLOSED

June Mountain - CLOSED

China Peak - CLOSED

About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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