We saw snow showers Wednesday into the evening. The ski areas are reporting that 1-7 inches of new snow fell in the past 24 hours.

Then the temperatures rose above freezing overnight as we expected, and the new snow started melting.

Three ski areas were reporting 0 inches on their reports this morning so I reached out to ask them about yesterday's snowfall. I was able to get the amount that they recorded by Wednesday evening before it started melting overnight. They said they didn't want people to think they had that much fresh snow this morning which is understandable, but it still counts towards the season totals per the NWS standards.

Here is the Keep Me Honest report card for the Wednesday system. My final forecast was for 2-9 inches. Some ski areas may have picked up slightly more than they are reporting as the snow melted overnight before the morning measurements. It looks like slightly less fell just south of the lake. Overall the storm performed as expected.

Mild for Thursday:

It's a beautiful morning as the sun rises over the lake, as seen from Homewood.

But the snow is getting wet and sticky as temperatures have risen above freezing up above 8000 ft. Ridgetop winds are gusting up to 40+ mph from the south-southwest, which is expected through the day on Thursday. We have above-average temperatures with highs into the 40s at lake level & 30s for the upper mountains.

We will see some sun and clouds for Thursday as the storm off the coast is fairly stationary and streams some clouds in over northern CA.

Friday Storm:

That storm near the coast will weaken as it eventually pushes precipitation inland and reaches the Sierra around late morning Friday into the afternoon, as seen on our forecast radar map.

It will still be somewhat mild in the morning and ridgetop winds will pick up with gusts from the south-southwest up to 60-70+ mph by midday. That could affect some upper mountain lifts. Snow levels start high up around 7000 ft. as the moisture pushes in, but fall to near lake level by the end of the day. Then down to 5200-5700 ft. Friday night.

The steadiest snow is expected to fall during the afternoon & evening and then snow showers continue overnight into early Saturday morning. The latest model runs show enough precip for around 1-9 inches of new snow on the mountains, and 1-3 inches at lake level by early Saturday morning. Similar to the amounts seen Wednesday, but in reverse with the storm going warmer to colder.

Saturday Storm:

The snow levels may stay steady as a wetter storm moves in Saturday morning. We will see heavier snow during the day into Saturday evening. Ridgetop winds continue to gust up to 60-70+ mph from the southwest, which could continue to affect some upper mountain lifts. Highs near freezing at lake level and 20s for the upper mountains.

The snow intensity could come down some Saturday night but snow showers are expected to continue into Sunday morning. Here is a look at the two storms moving through Friday and Saturday.

We could see 1-2 feet of snow by early Sunday morning. Total 2-day precipitation forecasts on the latest model runs are for 1.4 - 3.5 inches west of the lake up along the crest and up to 1.9 inches on the east side of the basin.

That is a bit of a big range with the GFS much wetter than the other models. The total model average is around 2.1 inches along the crest. Here is a look at the WPC's blended model forecast for Friday through Saturday night.

   

We could start as some rain at lake level Friday afternoon, but then snow levels drop below lake level. The average snow ratios for the 2-day period is around 11-14:1 on the mountains. Here is the updated snowfall forecast for the 2-day period.

         

Sunday - Monday Snow:

Snow showers from the Saturday storm are expected to continue through the day as additional waves of moisture move into the Sierra. Then Sunday night into Monday the 3rd storm moves in, with snow showers into Monday night.

Snow levels fall Saturday night below 4000 ft. and then could rise to between 4000-5000 ft. Sunday into Monday. Then dropping back below 4000 ft. Monday night. So this is a colder period with snow ratios averaging a bit higher in the 13-16:1 range on average on the mountains. That will bring some drier more powdery type snow.

Ridgetop winds could drop some Sunday with southwest winds only gusting up to 40-50+ mph over the exposed ridges. That could keep a majority of the lifts open if this slight lull happens. Then they could increase to 50-60+ mph Monday morning and fall back to 40-50+ mph during the afternoon.

If you are looking for a driving window I don't see a clear one. There will be periods of lighter snow showers, possibly later Friday night and Sunday, but they could still be steady over the passes and the roads will be snowy from all the snow continuing to fall. Saturday will be heavy enough into the evening that we could even see some highway closures at times.

We could see an additional 4-16 inches of new snow on the mountains by Monday morning and 8-18 inches by Tuesday morning. The total precipitation forecasts range from 1.4 - 3.3 inches up along the crest, with the GFS much wetter than the other models again. The total model average this morning is around 1.8 inches for Sunday-Monday.

The models still suggest that the Monday storm could shift south into SoCal, so we will have to watch the trends to make sure the forecast doesn't go down if the storm moves inland farther south than currently forecast. Here is my initial snowfall forecast for the 2nd half of the holiday weekend for Sunday - Monday night.

In total that would be 2-4+ feet of new snow on the mountains by Tuesday morning! At lake level, we could see 1-3 feet of new snow. I'll put out a final forecast for Friday-Saturday on Friday morning.

We could see a quick break between storms Tuesday with partly sunny skies and cold temperatures. Then a final storm is expected for Wednesday the 18th.

We will have to watch the track of this system. High pressure will be starting to build in over the West Coast as we go into the 19th. Some models suggest the storm could drop down to our northeast which is a drier track, and others suggest a more west and wetter track.

Then by Thursday the 19th into Friday the 20th the ridge is building in over the West Coast with the drier pattern setting in.

Fantasy Range:

Going from the 21st through the last week of January, the long-range models show the ridge over the West Coast slowly retrograding west away from the West Coast.

I've been mentioning over the last week or so that we could see that happen if the active phase of the MJO moves through the eastern Indian Ocean (phase 3) as the models suggest through the end of the month.

If not the ridge could sit closer to the coast. We are expecting a much drier pattern overall through the last week of January.

But if the ridge retrogrades up into the northeast Pacific, we could see a colder pattern with time...

... and the storm track going from the north to the northwest with time. That could mean we start out completely dry starting on the 19th, and then we could see more of an inside slider pattern with time with colder/weaker systems from the north. If retrogression continues we may see some colder/wetter systems drop down from the Gulf of Alaska by the end of the month into 1st week of February.

I'm hoping that this scenario happens and that we don't just dry up for several weeks...

Stay tuned...BA

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Fresh Tracks!

This week BA & Evan discuss The Never Ending Parade of Storms into CA, run through The New Top 10 Season-To-Date Snowfall List, catch up with Caleb & Taylor on their Snow-chasing Adventures, and talk about Where the Snow Will Fly Over the Next 2 Weeks!