Snowfall Reports:

I'm getting reports as of 6 AM Tuesday of 10-16 inches of new snow for ski areas west of the lake up along the crest in the past 24 hours, and 4-8 inches on the east side of the lake. That brings the 4-day total for this cold storm series to 2.5 - 5+ feet so far, with one more round to go Tuesday night into Wednesday morning!

We now have 4 CA ski areas that have broken 600 inches for the season so far, and we should be adding Palisades to that list Wednesday!

Tuesday - Wednesday Snow:

Snow showers Tuesday morning should diminish through midday with some scattered showers firing back up during the afternoon. Later Tuesday night into Wednesday a final wave of steadier snow moves through as the low off the coast finally moves inland. Then ending by Wednesday evening.

Here is a look at the forecast radar from Tuesday morning into Wednesday where you can see the final round of steadier snow moving through.

The winds are a little stronger this morning (Tuesday) than were forecast yesterday. Ridgetop winds are gusting up to 60-70+ mph and the latest model runs show gusts from the west-southwest up to 40-50+ mph over the exposed ridges through Tuesday. That could affect a few exposed lifts at times and it will make it feel even colder than the 20s for highs.

It stays cold through Wednesday with highs in the 20s. Ridgetop winds could increase Wednesday morning with the final wave moving through, with gusts up to 60-70+ mph which could affect some upper mountain lifts. Then coming down through Wednesday afternoon.

The latest model runs show a range of 0.45 - 0.85 inches of additional liquid west of the lake up along the crest, with the highest amounts northwest near Donner Summit, and up to 0.4 inches on the east side of the lake. The total model average for the remainder of the storm through Wednesday is around 0.64 inches near the crest.

You can see that the amounts fade south of the basin in the central Sierra. Snow levels peak around 4000 ft. Tuesday afternoon before falling to 1000 Tuesday night and peak around 3000 ft. Wednesday. Snow ratios average around 14-20:1 from lake level up to 9000 ft. through Wednesday. Here is the updated snowfall forecast for Tuesday morning through Wednesday.

Thursday - Saturday Storm:

We have a change in the pattern starting Thursday as we are going from a cold storm pattern to a warm storm pattern into the extended range. The latest model runs have sped up the arrival of the next storm on Thursday. We could start the day with partly sunny skies and increasing clouds and winds. Then we could see rain and snow showers reach the Tahoe basin by late afternoon.

The extended Pacific jet stream racing across the entire Pacific into CA will direct storms into CA through next week starting this Thursday, and it will also help to bring strong winds along with the incoming storm Thursday. Highs warm into the 30s to near 40 degrees at lake level. Winds from the southwest increase through the day with ridgetop winds up to 60-70+ mph by afternoon, which should start to close some lifts.

Heavy rain and snow move in Thursday night and last through Friday night, with light-moderate showers continuing through Saturday. Then another wave moves in Saturday night bringing in some heavier precipitation again that continues as showers Sunday. 

This storm will be tapping into plenty of subtropical moisture which will bring copious amounts of precipitation to the Sierra and also warmer air flowing in with high snow levels.

Ridgetop winds to 100+ mph through Friday should keep quite a few lifts closed and along with rain for the lower elevations it won't be a day to ski. The winds drop on Saturday with ridgetop gusts up to 40-50+ mph, with the snow levels falling.

The latest model runs show a range of 5.3 - 8.1 inches of total precipitation west of the lake near the crest, with plenty of moisture transport to the east side of the basin where we could see up to 6+ inches. The total model average is up about an inch this morning to around 6.4 inches near the crest by early Sunday morning.

That's a good amount of liquid over a 2.5-day period. If this were a cold storm that would be another 100-inch storm but this will be a much warmer storm than we have been seeing.

Snow levels could start near lake level Thursday afternoon, but then quickly rise through the evening up to around 7500-8000 ft. by midnight into Friday. The very heavy precipitation rates will help to keep them there but any lulls could allow them to rise a bit higher.

Then they very slowly fall Friday afternoon through Saturday night, starting around 7000-7500 ft. by Friday evening and possibly reaching close to or just above lake level by Saturday morning around 6200-6700 ft. Then they could hover in the 6000-7000 ft. range through Saturday night.

That means we will likely see mostly all rain near lake level and all rain below that into lower elevations like Truckee. Between 6000-7000 ft. we could see anywhere from a coating up to 4 feet from low to high and depending on the snow levels and how fast they drop into Saturday. Above 8000 ft. we should mostly see all snow and Sierra cement at that, with 3-5+ feet possible.

Snow ratios for the 2.5-day period should average around 7-12:1 from 7000 up to 9000 ft. So low snow ratios, much lower than we have been seeing. Here is my updated snowfall forecast for Thursday afternoon through Saturday night.

We may have to fine-tune the snow levels and totals a couple more times as the storm approaches this week. If you have a lot of snow on your roof I'm not sure the best way to get it off but you'll want to consult experts as a lot of rain will be falling into the snow in the lower elevations and being absorbed by it. That will make for very heavy snow loads on roofs by Friday into the weekend.

Rain & snow showers could continue through Sunday as the 2nd wave departs and the next storm approaches. We should see a bit of a lull through Sunday night, but then Monday the next wet storm moves in and could last into Wednesday. The storm could be similar to the Thursday - Saturday storm as far as totals and snow levels.

By next Thursday morning the 16th, the models are showing up to 12+ inches of total precipitation near the crest.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models suggest that we could see a break next Thursday - Friday.

The ensemble mean models show lower heights continuing over CA through the 3rd week of March. We are getting later in the month and as we transition to spring the jet stream starts to weaken and shifts north with time. The long-range models suggest more storms move through from the 18th into the last week of the month, but they may not be as strong as the storms over the next 9 days.

We'll continue to watch the trends, but we have plenty of rain and snow to deal with in the short term.

Stay tuned...BA

Fresh Tracks!

This week, Evan visits Tahoe to ride epically deep Sierra powder! We sum up yet another incredible week of snowfall across the country, then look ahead at impending Atmospheric Rivers that will bring heavy precipitation and much warmer temperatures to the western US.