Snowfall Reports:

We saw the snow levels hover near lake level Monday through Monday night, with a coating up to a few inches of snow below 7000 ft. For the upper mountains, we have 24-hour reports of 2-11 inches as of 7 AM Tuesday. That brings the 3-day totals to 20-38 inches.

The ski areas around the lake all combined are averaging around 197% of average snowfall for the date!

Tuesday Storm:

The warmer and wetter storm is pushing in Tuesday morning. So far the heavy precipitation has been confined to the west side of the basin, but the precipitation will push east through the morning. Snow levels have been rising as warmer air flows in raising temperatures.

Freezing levels as of 7 AM were around 7500 ft. which would put snow levels around 6500-7000 ft. It is snowing over Donner Summit and raining at lake level, so that should be about right. But snow levels will continue to rise along with the winds.

Ridgetop winds are gusting up to 70-80+ mph but are expected to increase with gusts up to 100+ mph from the southwest by afternoon. That should close quite a few upper mountain lifts, and some ski areas have already decided to close for the day with the high winds and heavy rain. Snow levels should peak out around 7300-8300 ft. by midday.

The latest model runs still show the center of the low and cold front to our north detaching from the AR to our south by afternoon, which puts us in a slot with precipitation that is not as intense. Then the cold front tries to set up a band of steady snow through the evening but looks to fizzle, with the latest model runs showing the system clearing by midnight now. 

Here is a look at the forecast radar through Tuesday evening.

Snow levels look to drop to around 7000-8000 ft. by 5 PM, and then quickly below lake level between 5-11 PM as the storm wraps up. We'll have to see how fast they fall to see if we could pick up a few inches of snow at the end at lake level. 

The latest model runs continue to trend down total precipitation amounts with the slower arrival of the heavy precipitation, the split, and the faster exit Tuesday night. They are showing a range of 1.8 - 3.0 inches of total precipitation Tuesday through Tuesday evening near the crest, and up to 1.8 inches to the east side of the lake.The total model average near the crest is around 2.15 inches.

Here is a look a the NAM model forecast which is closest to the model average. You can see the split with the heaviest precipitation to our north and south. Probably a welcome sight to the waterlogged residents around the Tahoe basin.

The snow above the snow line will be wet with a little bit of drier snow at the end on top. We could see a coating up to a few inches of snow at the end at lake level if the snow levels wait until evening to fall, and the storm clears before midnight. There is a boom-bust zone between 7300-8300 ft. depending on the location and actual snow levels. Above 8300 ft. we could see 1-2 feet of wet snow.

The ski areas mostly measure in the boom-bust zone, so I have the forecast in both the 7k and 8k zones to cover that range. With 2-11 inches so far, and 6-22 inches forecast for Tuesday, we will likely see totals of 8-33 inches. My final forecast for the storm put out Monday morning was for 4-33 inches, so we should still be on track with that. Highest amounts above 8k on the crest and lowest at 7k on the east side.

Wednesday - Thursday:

We should see nice weather on both days with partly-mostly sunny skies, lighter winds, and highs into the 30s on the mountains. We could warm to near 40 degrees at lake level.

Friday - Sunday:

The latest model runs are still not in agreement on the timing and track of a pair of weak systems moving through CA over the weekend. Some show the first weak system Friday and some not until Saturday, and then another Sunday-Sunday night. Here is the European model forecast for the 3 days.

Let's give them another day to come to a better agreement before putting out a snowfall forecast. But they are weak and look to be more of a nuisance than any kind of significant snowfall that could bring a powdery day. 

Expect clouds and sun with some rain and snow showers for the weekend. Snow levels are likely to continue to fluctuate around lake level. Highs into the 30s on the mountains and near 40 degrees at lake level.

The long-range models continue to show the jet stream retracting and the pattern going back to a cold trough pattern over the West next week, the week of the 20th.

They still show a wetter storm around the 21st-22nd, but colder as well with lower snow levels than we've been seeing this week.

Another storm is now popping up around the 24th-25th that we'll keep an eye on as well. Overall the ensemble mean models agree that we will continue to see above-average precipitation from Friday the 17th through the 24th-25th.

We will also likely see some colder air with below-average temperatures continuing for at least the next 10 days.

Fantasy Range:

The last 6 days of March the long-range models keep the storm door open...

...but that can mean something much less impressive by the end of March into April, as the jet stream weakens and shifts north. It gets a lot harder to see stronger storms going into the middle of Spring. The ensemble mean models show near to above-average precipitation continuing...

...but the precipitation and temperature averages decline into spring, so the storms don't have to be as wet or cold to see above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures.

I still think the storms will become more spaced and fairly weak the last several days of the month into April, which is typical. I'm still optimistic that we could finally have a weekend with some sunny and mild days with spring skiing for the first week of April, in time for the Winter Wondergrass Festival! Hopefully, I can will it to happen.

I'm also going to be a judge for the Dummy Downhill at Diamond Peak that weekend, so I'm hoping to be slathering on sunscreen in my Hawaiian shirt and hat. Hopefully, it's not like past events I've judged like at Sugar Bowl in 2019 where I set in a blizzard to judge the pond skim. That's no fun...

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. We recorded a fun show last night for the Flakes Podcast. Check it out below! For the next two weeks, I'll be interviewing bands that will be playing at the WWG Festival at Palisades from 3/31-4/2. Hope to see you there that weekend!

Fresh Tracks!

This week, Mike loses his mind as winter continues into Spring with no end in sight. Will we see any spring skiing before the ski areas close in April? Caleb is chasing snow in Canada this week. We run through all the numbers including the updated top 10 snowfall list. Then we talk through the forecasts for more storms and snow across the country and search for any signs of a break.

Available on most podcast platforms...