Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago March 15, 2023

Sunny Days!...

Summary

Mostly sunny for Wednesday-Thursday with mostly sunny skies and lighter winds. Weaker systems are possible Friday through Sunday. A wetter storm is possible for the 21st-22nd, and again around the 25th. The storms look to be weaker late month.

Short Term Forecast

Snowfall Reports:

Snow levels rose and the system split Tuesday as we expected. We ended up with the higher end of the snow level forecasts as snow levels jumped up to 8000-8500 ft. during the afternoon with rain for most elevations. The temperatures dropped through the evening and snow levels hit lake level as the precipitation moved out by around 2 AM.

temps

That wasn't fast enough for more than a coating of snow at lake level. The forecast was for 0-4 inches so we weren't expecting much knowing the snow levels wouldn't fall until the end. A lot of heavy rain fell helping to melt snow in the lower elevations but also adding to some snow loads.

Looking at the snowfall sensors on Palisades and Kirkwood between 8000-8500 ft. We saw 5-8 inches of snow respectively Tuesday morning before a change to rain/mix and a lull in the accumulations, then an additional 4-5 inches Tuesday evening with the snow showers at the end. There is an ice and slush layer under that final snowfall.

Looking at the reports it looks like Palisades didn't add the two snowfall amounts together and only reported the snow that fell after the change back to snow, but Kirkwood added the two along with the other mountains that reported 24 hours totals of 14-19 inches. Then the mountains that measure lower in elevation also reported single-digit amounts or just rain.

reports

The rain/snow mix totals bring the 2-day storm totals to 2-19 inches. The Snow Lab recorded 2.88 inches of total liquid over the last two days. With the rain/snow mix that is only an average snow:liquid ratio of around 6:1 for the storm. Palisades saw around 2.6 inches of liquid so supposedly they only had snow ratios of 5-6:1 all the way up to 8k.

My final snowfall forecast put out Monday morning for the storm was for 4-33 inches of snow between 7000 ft. on the east side of the basin up to 8000+ ft. on the west side of the basin. We knew to hit the higher end of the forecast the snow levels would need to not hit the high end of the forecast, which they did. The high-end of the forecast assumed 3.1 inches of liquid and snow ratios near 10:1 at 8k.

I had a wider range in my forecast than normal knowing the snow levels would be fluctuating between 7300-8300 ft. in the same zone that ski areas measure. With the snow levels hitting the max and not falling until the end, the lower elevation mountains came in 1-7 inches under my forecast range, with the higher elevation mountains and the Snow Lab reporting within my forecast range.

Here is the Keep Me Honest Report Card for the storm.

variance

Overall we expected a wet and messy storm and we saw one. Sadly, many homes and buildings suffered damage from the heavy snow loads crushing buildings and water flooding some buildings. I hope that everyone is able to recover from the storms but it will take a long time for some.

Of note, is that a week ago we talked about the models showing a 7-day precipitation forecast average of around 13 inches near the crest through Tuesday night. The Snow Lab recorded only 10.5 inches of total liquid. So the outlying models showing over-the-scale amounts that scared everyone were wrong, and we ended up seeing the low end of the model forecasts.

Wednesday - Thursday Sun!

We finally have a break in the storms and not much cold air behind the storm. We will see mostly sunny skies Wednesday and Thursday along with lighter winds. Highs into the 30s on the mountains to near 40 degrees at lake level. 

It will be nice weather for locals and mountains to clean up from the storms. For skiing, the snow will eventually become soft on the mountains in areas that see the sun.

Friday - Saturday:

The latest model runs are showing the weak system approaching the West Coast Friday splitting as it does. We may just see a few clouds along with partly sunny skies both days, and maybe a few scattered showers if the system doesn't completely fall apart.

Snow levels look to be fluctuating between 6000-7500 ft. over the two days. So if we see any showers they could be rain at lake level or a mix back and forth. The winds look to remain fairly light on both days.

Sunday System:

The next system moving into CA Saturday night into Sunday looks to hold together a little better, but it still looks pretty weak overall.

weak system

The GFS model shows steadier snow showers Saturday night and fading Sunday. The European model shows them Sunday and fading Sunday night. The range among the models this morning is for 0.2 - 0.6 inches near the crest, but the Canadian model is an outlier showing up to 0.85 inches. The total model average is around 0.45 inches. Here is the WPC"s blended model forecast.

wpc 1

Snow levels look to be up around 7000-7500 ft. Saturday evening and then fall as the system moves in, down to around 5500-6000 ft. by early Sunday morning. That is right near lake level. Then they could rise to 6000-7000 ft. by Sunday afternoon. So a mix of rain and snow looks likely again for lake level.

Above 7000 ft. we could see a few inches of snow from this weak system. Here is my initial snowfall forecast for later Saturday night into Sunday evening.

snowfall

Mostly a nuisance system. Not expecting big travel impacts but maybe some chain controls at night. The mountain impacts look limited as well as winds look to stay on the lighter side and not strong enough to affect lift operations.

We could maybe see a fresh tracks morning on Sunday on the upper mountains. But you'll want to hit it early as highs will likely warm into the 30s to near 40 degrees at lake level, which will make the snow wet during the day.

Extended Forecast

Next week the long-range models still show a deep trough over the West Coast, with a pair of moderate-strong storms possibly moving through CA. We could see a break between storms Monday, but then as early as Monday night into Tuesday, the next storm could move in.

tue storm

This storm could tap a decent amount of moisture off of the Pacific, and it could linger into next Wednesday the 22nd. Snow levels could fluctuate but it looks slightly colder than the last storm, so we could see some decent snow on the mountains if the current forecasts hold. I'll continue to watch the trends and I"ll have an initial snowfall forecast for the storm on Friday.

We are also watching another decent storm that could move through around the 24th-25th with more snow.

storm 2

The ensemble mean models show a decent amount of total precipitation falling between the week of the 20th on top of the light amounts from the weekend.

total precip

Fantasy Range:

Beyond the 25th the long-range models continue to show troughing hanging around the West Coast through the end of March.

trough

The storm door could remain open, but as we get later into spring and go into April the jet stream weakens and wavelengths shorten. That will make it harder to see any bigger storms. We may see weaker systems if the storms continue through the end of the month into April. 

No signs yet of a big ridge and prolonged warm and dry weather in the long range. I'll let you know when I see any.

Stay tuned...BA

Announcements

Fresh Tracks!

This week, Mike loses his mind as winter continues into Spring with no end in sight. Will we see any spring skiing before the ski areas close in April? Caleb is chasing snow in Canada this week. We run through all the numbers including the updated top 10 snowfall list. Then we talk through the forecasts for more storms and snow across the country and search for any signs of a break.

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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