This winter has been historic and it doesn't want to let go. A weak system moving through Saturday night was expected to bring a dusting to an inch of snow. Most locations picked up that, but northeast of the lake Mt. Rose is reporting 4 inches as some heavier snow fell to the northeast into Reno.

We are starting the day Sunday with some scattered snow showers still around and temperatures in the teens.

We could see an additional dusting to an inch of snow on the mountains Sunday morning. Then we should see some clearing with partly sunny skies into the afternoon. Higs in the 20s for the upper mountains and 30s at lake level.

Monday:

The latest model runs continue to slow the arrival of the next storm moving into northern CA. We can see the low spinning up in the Gulf of Alaska this morning. It will combine with a system off the coast and will move in Tuesday.

That means Monday will be mostly sunny with highs in the 30s. Ridgetop increasing from the southwest with gusts up to 40-50+ mph by the end of the day.

Tuesday - Wednesday Storm:

The latest model runs show the Tuesday storm pushing snow showers into the northern Sierra by early Tuesday morning, but holding off on heavier precipitation until later in the morning into the afternoon as the cold front pushes heavier precipitation into the Tahoe basin.

Southerly flow ahead of the cold front may limit snow showers east of the crest. Ridgetop winds from the south-southwest could reach 100+ mph ahead of the front by midday Tuesday. That will likely close quite a few ski lifts on Tuesday. Then turning more the southwest through the afternoon with good spillover of heavy snow across the basin.

Snow showers continue into Tuesday night. The latest model runs show the low-pressure center near the coast sliding south and not moving inland through Wednesday. That is a drier scenario for the Sierra. We may see a mix of clouds and some sun with only scattered snow showers, and then clearing Wednesday night. The winds drop on Wednesday.

The latest model runs continue to trim down the total precipitation forecasts with the slower arrival of the storm and less of a chance for snow showers Wednesday. The forecast range near the crest is 1.1 - 1.8 inches and up to 1.2 inches to the east side of the basin. The total model average is around 1.45 inches this morning.

Here is a look at the WPC's blended model forecast through Wednesday.

Snow levels look to be around 5000-5500 ft. by midday Tuesday as the heaviest snow is moving through. Then falling Tuesday night below 2000 ft. by early Wednesday morning, and up to 4500-5000 ft. on Wednesday. Snow ratios average around 12-17:1 from lake level up to 9000 ft. They are a bit lower on Tuesday with the heaviest snow. Somewhat dry snow for the upper mountains.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast, which is down around 2 inches on the high-end from my last forecast put out Friday morning, due to the models continuing to trend the precipitation forecasts down.

I don't expect them to lower the forecasts much more as the storm gets closer. Still a 1-2 footer for the upper mountains and 6-18 inches for lake level. Most of the snow falls by Tuesday night, with a dusting up to 3 inches from the lingering snow showers possible Wednesday.

Thursday - Friday:

Not much of a change in the forecast for Thursday - Friday. We should see partly sunny skies with highs into the 20s for the upper elevations and 30s for the lower elevations and lake level. We could see some scattered snow showers on both days, but only very light accumulations are expected at best. The winds are expected to be lighter as well.

Next Weekend Snow:

It's a little early to look at snowfall for next weekend, but I'm giving forecasts to the WinterWonderGrass Festival staff for their event at Palisades next weekend so I'm creating snowfall forecasts already.

The forecast models have been struggling with the pattern for the first weekend of April, as you likely know if you have been following along over the past week or so. The models have been struggling with how far south the next trough digs into the West.

In my last post on Friday morning, most showed high pressure over CA for the weekend. Over the past 48 hours, all of the models have been trending toward the next cold trough digging much farther south into CA for the 1st-2nd.

As the trough digs in Saturday, the latest operational model runs show a fairly slow-moving system and a cold front moving through the northern/central Sierra. The European model is now the wettest model as it has the storm tapping into some deeper moisture over the Pacific.

It now has up to 1.6 inches of precipitation falling NW of the lake near Donner Summit early Saturday morning into Saturday night! Most of the forecast models now show a weak-moderate storm for Saturday. Then snown showers into Sunday and Sunday night as additional weak systems dive into the trough. They show a range of 0.3 - 2.0 inches of total precipitation with the highest amounts NW of the lake.

The total model average is increasing and is now around 0.95 inches near the crest. Here is a look at the GFS model forecast which is closest to the model average for next weekend.

We could also see winds increase on Saturday with strong ridgetop winds. Highs into the 30s on Saturday with snow levels possibly reaching 6000-6500 ft. as some warmer air moves in ahead of the cold front. The falling below 4000 ft. Saturday night and up to around 5000 ft. next Sunday the 2nd.

As I said, it is early for a snowfall forecast, but here is what I shared with the WWG staff this morning.

We will be fine-tuning the forecast all week. I was trying last week to will a sunny weekend for myself sitting outside on Saturday judging the Dummy Downhill at Diamond Peak and standing outside watching the WWG bands Sat & Sun evenings. But winter doesn't want to let go and had its own ideas in line with most of this winter.

Beyond next weekend the long-range models were showing the trough returning with an unsettled pattern through the first week of April. Now they just show the trough from next weekend hanging around through the first week of April and possibly into the 8th.

That will continue to allow cold air and weak-moderate system to dive into the trough over CA and the West. It's already been a historically cold winter, and the well-below-average temperatures are forecast to continue.

The latest ensemble mean model runs show above-average precipitation continuing for the Pacific NW and extending south into the northern/central Sierra.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models suggest that high pressure starts to build over the West Coast during the 2nd week of April.

We'll have to see if that sticks as any forecasts for a drier and milder pattern in the long range have reversed as we get closer all winter. It's April though and the jet stream is weakening and shifting north with time, so we may have a better chance of the models being right with a trend toward a drier pattern. We'll see...

Stay tuned...BA