Summary:

Quiet Fall weather continues into next week.  Next wed-thu a trough approaching the West Coast looks like it could bring the chance of some light precip as it splits coming onshore.  After that another week of quiet weather possible.

Details:

Not too much change today in the forecast.  Quiet weather continues with temperatures near average for this time of year.

The cold trough digging down from the Gulf of Alaska next week continues to show the potential of splitting with the heaviest precip staying to our North and West.  That is lowering the precip forecast from where it was 36-48 hours ago.  This system is still 5 days away so we will keep watching.  

The forecast models are still varying in their scenarios, but the majority keep the heaviest precip to our North and West.  This prevents a consolidated front from pushing heavy precip and colder air into our area.  The lowest snow levels I see with the possible light precip is around 8000 feet.

Here is the 6z GFS run which has up to half an inch of liquid, after the 0z run had up to three quarters.

and the latest 12z run with even less

The Canadian run keeps just about all of the precip to our North and West

The blended WPC precip forecast shows a blend of the 2 with light amounts and heavy precip staying to the North and West.

The only reason I updated again today is because yesterday we saw a few signs of the storm splitting after several days of a decent system showing up on the model runs.  Today the split seems more likely the scenario.  I will update again over the weekend if there are any changes.

Over the next few weeks as some of the ski resorts try to open and if we get some more active weather I will begin the daily posts.  The next chance of a storm after Wednesday looks to not be until at least the 7th.

If you missed the post about our Winter Forecast coming out you can get to yesterday's post by clicking below.

Stay tuned...BA