After a wet October we have had a dry start to November.

Since the beginning of the month we have been watching for a pattern change around mid-month.  That change is going to happen in the pattern starting today, but the amount of moisture we would like to see as the storms get started again just isn't there for us yet.

The forecast models this morning continue their daily trend over the past week of getting drier by the day.  The cold front tonight will be strong but the snowfall will not.  We could see some light showers near the crest as early as this afternoon, with snow levels near 8000 feet.

Then tonight through Wednesday the cold low moves over the area with scattered snow showers.  Looking at the latest forecast model runs this morning the GFS and Canadian models are the driest with the NAM and European models only slightly wetter.

GFS

NAM

Take the average and you get a final snowfall forecast that looks like this.

Of course the outliers could happen and we could see up to 4 inches West of the lake along the crest, but for now I would expect a dusting to a coating at lake level, and 1-2 inches on the mountains through Wednesday.

After the Storm:

The good news is that it will be cold enough for around the clock snowmaking on the mountains starting tonight.  They should be able to fire up the guns from tonight through Thursday night.

We see a break Thursday and Friday ahead of the next approaching storm that will bringly slightly milder temperatures and inversions Friday into Saturday.  

Storm #2:

The forecast models have flipped now with the GFS and Canadian models showing the storm this weekend splitting and the European now is the one holding it together.  The difference could be no snow with a splitting storm, and 6-18 inches of snow if it holds together.  This is making the forecast very frustrating.

As the storm approaches on Saturday the flow is from the South and most of the precip will be stuck to our West.  Then the GFS splits the storm with the main low going to our North and the rest of the precip heading to our South.  It shows up well on the Canadian model precip forecast through Monday.

You can see the heavy precip falls over Northern CA Saturday to our West and then splits down to Southern CA missing us.  I can't show the European model publicly, but it holds the storm together with up to 1.5 inches of liquid along the crest and up to inch across the Tahoe basin.

So we will have to keep watching the storm for this weekend to see what will happen.  If it holds together we should see snow on the mountains Saturday night into Sunday.

We will have another break to start next week but the pattern is setup so that it should be short-lived.  We should see the next storm approach the area by Wednesday.  This would be another cold storm that could bring several inches for Thanksgiving.  We will keep watching this storm as well as it approaches.

Overall I like the way the pattern looks like it could shape up through the end of the month.  The ensemble mean of the models suggest that the ridge could stay to the North of Hawaii and form over the Hudson Bay in Canada.  That is a pattern that can funnel cold storms from the Gulf of Alaska down into the West Coast.

Right now week 1's storms through next Wednesday look weak to moderate with snowfall potential.  Week 2's storms look more promising if the pattern sets up the way it is being forecast now.  Let's hope it does setup a pattern that could bring cold storms later in the month into December.

Stay tuned...BA

Don't forget that we are now forecasting for the Mammoth area.  So be sure to start checking out Howard's discussion on that page as well! https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/mammoth