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Quick post on this cold day... We are seeing snow showers move through today. We have already seen a couple heavy bursts that have dropped a quick coating in areas to the North of the lake.
The snow showers will continue through the day before tapering off. Not expecting more than an inch or two on the mountains. The air is cold and will create 2 days of around the clock snowmaking on the mountains.
Friday into Saturday the Southerly flow develops ahead of the next storm and high temperatures warm 10-15 degrees into the 40's to near 50 at lake level.
The next storm pushes in a stream of moisture Saturday into CA but the flow is Southerly and the crest will shadow out most of the Tahoe basin except for West of the lake and up to the crest. As the storm pushes inland it will split so we may not see much if any precip push across the lake.
The question will be how much snow can fall West of the lake along the crest. The forecast models show anywhere from a third of an inch to over an inch of liquid reaching the crest. Snow levels look to be around 7000 feet Saturday night as this happens. So depending on how close the precip can make it we could see several inches of snow along the crest to the West of the Tahoe area.
Look at the 6z run of the GFS vs the 12z run this morning. You can see even run to run of the same model differs on how much precip makes it to the crest.
This will make a big difference for how much snow a majority of the ski resorts get. Only 4 out of 18 sit East of the West Shore where there will be complete shadowing. The rest could see a few inches up to a foot of snow above 7000 feet Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Here is what an average of the models gives us as of this morning, minus an inch in there for today.
So we will probably be nowcasting this on Saturday night as we see what the storm does. Sunday into Monday the storm should split apart leaving us mainly dry with only a chance of scattered showers. Snow levels don't fall until Monday.
There is a weak cold storm that could brush us with light snow for Thanksgiving. Just enough to add some ambiance.
More interesting is the storm right after for the weekend that could be a stronger cold storm.
The title is in reference to the weaker storms week 1 through Thanksgiving that could then give way to bigger storms week 2. I still like the way the pattern is setting up for cold and storms the last week of the month into December.
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