A quick post this morning to recap the weather ahead this week.

We have 3 more days of quiet weather.  Then strong winds Wednesday with increasing clouds.  The GFS holds off on precip until the evening.  The European model brings in light precip by afternoon.  The snow levels may start around 8000 feet midday Wednesday before falling to 7000 feet by evening as seen on the latest model runs.

The trend on the forecast model runs continues to be a later start with the AR staying well to the North Tuesday into Wednesday.  Then a fast moving cold front pushing precip through our area Wednesday night.  The snow levels may fall quickly to lake level Wednesday night with the cold front and period of heavier precip.

What is interesting this morning is that the GFS is showing the trough elongating down the Sierra as it moves inland Wednesday night, and turning the winds South-Southeast during the heaviest precip.

If you are running the GFS at home you are seeing the South winds preventing much precip from making it past the crest into the Tahoe basin.

The European and Canadian models are not showing this, and I'm not sure I believe the GFS scenario myself right now.  Here is the Canadian model which normally shadows the Tahoe basin on most storms, but is still showing more spillover than the GFS.  The European model even more.

The GFS is showing only up to half an inch of precip near the crest and only a tenth of an inch on the East side of the lake.  The European model shows up to 1.5 inches of precip along the crest and up to an inch on the East side of the lake.  So the Euro is much wetter.  The updated snowfall forecast takes the average of the two.

So this may end up just being a fast moving cold front storm Wednesday night that drops several inches of snow across the Tahoe basin, and up to a foot along the crest by Thursday morning.

There should be a break Thursday afternoon into Thursday night before a colder and stronger storm moves in Friday.  The European model is a bit faster with the arrival later Thursday night.  This storm should bring a period of heavy snow Friday as it moves through, with snow showers continuing into Friday night.  Here is the initial snowfall forecast by Sat morning for this storm.

The GFS brings a break next Saturday while the Euro keeps the trough in place with continued snow showers and several inches of snow possible.

Then Sunday into Sunday night another storm is possible, followed by another Monday the 23rd into Tuesday the 24th.  You will see snow in the forecast for 7 days straight in the 10 day forecast on the ski resort pages.

Here is the GFS total precip forecast through the next 10 days.  Keep in mind that it is the drier model.

So while we may not have any big AR events during the next 10 days, the storm train of moderate fast moving storms starting Wednesday could pile up to several feet on the mountains over 7 days.

We have discussed the pattern change coming towards the end of the month.  That change may or may not mean a break in the storms.  The pattern may be reverting back to a block up near Alaska which is the pattern responsible for the big AR events we have been seeing this season.  We may see couple more into February if the pattern sets up right again.

Stay tuned...BA

Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.

*The snowfall forecasts on the ski resort pages are for the upper mountains at 8000'.