We had a bit of an unexpected prolonged break during the middle of the day yesterday ahead of the colder and stronger part of the storm.  That allowed the roads to clear up and open for a little while allowing some people to leave town.  Then the 2nd half the storm did no disappoint as it brought very heavy snowfall from the afternoon and overnight.

The ski resorts are reporting 2-3 feet in the past 24 hours and most of that came with the 2nd half of the storm.  The resorts South of the lake picked up the most as they did get heavy snowfall yesterday morning from the 1st half of the storm.  My 24 hour forecast yesterday morning was for 17-38 inches on the mountains.  Reports this morning are 20-36, so the storm did exactly what I was thinking.

The average is 89% of average snowfall on the upper mountains so far, and we aren't even halfway through the ski season!  Some resorts are close to 300 inches in just over 3 weeks!

We did increase the forecast over the last few days as the storm looked stronger coming in.  Also, the storm on Saturday over performed by about a foot.  Here is the comparison to my 6 day forecast from last Wednesday morning against the storm totals for the last 5 days...

I don't have the final official numbers from the snow lab yet, but we should be at least a couple feet ahead of March 1991 as of this morning, which saw 201 inches of snowfall and was the old monthly record.  We should also be approaching the record for total precipitation for this point in the water year.  We should also be very close to surpassing 1995 for the most snow this point in the season.  January 31st 1995 we were at 336 inches.  I'll have final numbers hopefully by tomorrow.

This guy seems to be enjoying all the snow!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgQ-fuXbxZE

The strong low pressure that was spinning off the Pacific NW coast yesterday is weakening and dropping down the CA coast today.

 

That will track close enough to keep snow showers going, especially West of the lake along the crest today and tonight.  But far enough West of us to keep the snow light.  We could see another inch or two on the mountains today, and a bit more is possible where the snow showers setup along the crest.  There is some heavier snow this morning South of the lake so we may see some higher amounts there as well.

So we will have to add a few inches to the totals tomorrow before all is said and done.  The skies will clear for Tuesday as high pressure builds in.  There is still a weak system showing up on the model runs pushing under the ridge into CA on Thursday.  That could bring some clouds and a few light snow showers, but not expecting more than a dusting at best right now.

High pressure builds in stronger for the weekend and into the beginning of next week with lots of sun and temperatures in the 30's.  The snowcover and nightly inversions will create very cold overnight lows in the valleys.  Those cold temperatures will take a while to warm everyday.  We could start to see temperatures in the 40's early next week.

The ensemble runs are still in decent agreement that a trough will redevelop along the West Coast by the 3rd of February.

 

The negative PNA and EPO forecasts match the pattern with the ridge near the Aleutians and the trough along the West Coast.

 

The operational model runs show storms trying to push into the West Coast starting around the 1st, with better success pushing in precip by the 3rd.

This is a nice break to dig out and for the snow to settle improving the avalanche danger.  We will get lots of stats out this week and start to track the return of the storms.

Stay tuned...BA

Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.

*The snowfall forecasts on the ski resort pages are for the upper mountains at 8000'.