We have 3 storms lined up to move in over the next 7 days.  There are some adjustments this morning to the forecast for the first 2.

Two more days of mild weather and then on Tuesday the first storm moves in with the front falling apart as it moves towards the area.  The trend on the models has been drier and drier the past 24 hours after wetter runs yesterday.  The only model this morning still showing much precipitation making it into our area is the NAM.

The GFS has cut but to a high end of a quarter of an inch of liquid along the crest.

The European model was consistent for a week on bringing in up to half an inch of liquid, but this morning is one of the driest model runs for Tuesday.

I'm not sure if the snow levels really matter if we aren't going to get much if any precip.  I think we still keep an eye on it through tomorrow with the NAM still being wetter.  Snow levels may start around 8,000 feet at midnight Monday night with the first showers possible after that in the early morning hours.  Then falling to 7,000 feet by Tuesday morning and close to lake level by late afternoon.

The snowfall forecast this morning is back to the way it looked a couple days ago.  If these drier runs are right then only a dusting up to an inch of snow on the mountains.

A quick break Wednesday with temperatures rebounding into the 40's.

There has been a lot more consistency over the last 10 days on the Thursday storm.  This time the cold front holds together, has colder air behind it, and more moisture.  Not much change on the forecast this morning.  The GFS has trended a bit wetter and is more in line with the other models now, showing just over 2 inches of liquid possible West of the lake along the crest.

GFS

Euro

The timing of the snow levels falling is everything whenever we have storms that start high and drop.  We could have snow levels starting as high as 9000 feet early Thursday morning when the precip first starts to fall.  But then colder air moves in through the day dropping snow levels pretty quickly.  They could fall to 8000 feet by mid-morning, 7000 feet by mid-day, and below lake level by late afternoon.

The snow is expected to continue into Thursday night with colder air moving in and snow ratios increasing.  That should drop some powdery snow on the mountains Thursday night.  The snow should taper off to scattered showers by Friday morning.  The forecast hasn't changed much, just notched up a couple inches with the wetter GFS run.

Much colder air moves in behind the storm for next weekend.  Highs may only be in the 20's on the mountains and 30's at lake level through next Sunday.  There is a cold storm showing up on the models dropping in from the NW by next Sunday night.  It's too early for a snowfall forecast at 7+ day out, but we can start to put it in the line of storms approaching.  

We will have to watch to see how much moisture this storm picks up and pushes in, and how fast it arrives a week from today.  The latest European model runs has a weaker storm.  The GFS and Canadian models have a pretty wet and cold storm.  So we will watch closely all week.

Here is the GFS 8 day precip forecast through next Monday.

That bulls eye NW of us near Bald Eagle Mountain with low snow levels is causing the GFS snowfall forecast to show some impressive totals up there.  We will keep an eye on how far South and East the heavier precip could push with the storms.

Going into the week of the 22nd the trough is still over the West Coast.  That should continue to bring us colder air and keep the storm door open.  We could see more storms as we go through days 8-14.  That brings us within a few days of the end of January.

Looking at the GFS and European ensemble mean runs for height forecasts and anomalies, we see that the mean trough position could still be sitting over or near the West Coast at the end of the month.

So no signs yet of any extended dry periods of more than a few days.  The cold storms could continue through the end of the month, coming in every few days.

Stay tuned...BA

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