Ski resorts opening early out West thanks to a deep start to November

The first 10 days of November were outstanding across the West with heavy snow from the Cascades to the Sierra to the Rockies. Many ski resorts are opening up ahead of schedule this year, including California and Utah both of whom received the deepest snow totals this week.

In Big Cottonwood Canyon (Utah), Solitude just opened for the season on Thursday, and Brighton is scheduled to open on Friday. While the terrain in the below image from Solitude is not open yet, it's still a good indicator of the impressive early-season snowpack.

Forecast for Fri 11/11 – Sat 11/12:

A weak storm is now expected to reach the West Coast on Friday night and Saturday, producing light snow mainly across the Oregon Cascades and Northern California. Further north, a stronger storm will impact the coastal ranges of Alaska and Northern BC.

The pattern will also turn more interesting across the eastern half of North America during this time with a good round of snow expected across Northern Minnesota and Ontario on Friday while rain will change over to light snow showers across Wisconsin and Michigan on Saturday. 

Tropical Storm (former Hurricane) Nicole will also move from south to north up the Appalachian Range on Friday and Saturday, resulting in heavy rain from Georgia to Maine. 

Forecast for Sun 11/13 – Mon 11/14:

In the wake of Nicole, a strong cold front will move across the East on Sunday resulting in substantially colder temperatures. Post-frontal snow showers will also develop across the Great Lakes and New York/New England on Sunday and Monday, with light snow possible further south into West Virginia as well.

A weak and fast-moving storm will also move across the Southwest with a quick dusting possible from Tahoe to Southern Utah/Northern Arizona. The storm could strengthen just enough as it moves further East for New Mexico to pick up some decent snow, but confidence is low. 

Further north, the coastal ranges of Alaska will continue to receive heavy snow though lower elevations will likely see rain or a rain/snow mix.

Forecast for Tue 11/15 – Wed 11/16:

Confidence is low in how the pattern will transpire during this period. However, we have two potential storms to keep an eye on, one across the East and another near the Continental Divide in the West.

The Eastern storm is likely to produce snow throughout the Great Lakes region while the Central/Southern Appalachians and Southern New England could see a mixed bag of precipitation. If the storm tracks far enough north, then Northern New England & Upstate New York could be in play for moderate to heavy snow.

A storm is also projected to drop into the Rockies from the north/northwest during this period. A few models are taking the storm track west of the Continental Divide, adding to the uncertainty, but the more likely scenario is that the storm will slide down the eastern side of the Continental Divide with eastern slope areas from Montana to New Mexico being the most favored. 

Outlook for Thu 11/17 – Mon 11/21:

A cold pattern will persist across most of the Lower 48 and Canada during this time, except along the West Coast where warmer air is expected to arrive. The West will remain in a relatively quiet pattern with only occasional weak storms possible, while a more active storm track with better snow potential can be expected across the Great Lakes and New England. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Monday (11/14):

ALAN SMITH