Cold and Snowy Pattern Developing Across the Great Lakes & New England

A multi-week stretch of mild temperatures across the East is coming to an abrupt end this week as cold air originating from the arctic regions floods into Southern Canada and the Lower 48, sending temperatures to well below seasonal averages for mid-November. Great news for early-season snowmaking conditions! 

In addition, the first significant winter storm of the season for the eastern half of North America will bring light to moderate snow to the Great Lakes initially, before an area of low pressure strengthens off the Atlantic Coast with heavy snow developing across New England on Wednesday. Lake effect snow is also expected across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on the backside of this storm. 

Forecast for Mon 11/14 – Tue 11/15:

We will see a fairly active start to the week with departing storms for Southeast Canada and New Mexico/Southern Colorado on Monday morning. The latter storm will then begin to impact the Upper Midwest later Monday and into Tuesday with widespread light to moderate snow. A mix of snow and rain will also reach the Mid-Atlantic (WV/PA) by Tuesday afternoon. 

A weak storm will also slide down the eastern slopes of the Continental Divide, bringing light to moderate snow to parts of Montana and Northern Wyoming. Further north, a strong storm will bring heavy snow to Southeast Alaska. 

Forecast for Wed 11/16 – Thu 11/17:

A strong storm will impact the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate to heavy snow possible across Upstate New York and Northern New England, while Southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic will see mixed precipitation that will eventually change over to light snow showers on the backside of the storm.

Cold air passing over the relatively warm Great Lakes behind this storm will result in lake-effect snow cranking up across the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday.

Out West, another storm will slide down the east side of the Continental Divide, bringing light to moderate snow to eastern slope areas of Alberta, Montana, and Wyoming.

Forecast for Fri 11/18 – Sat 11/19:

Significant lake effect snow will be possible in favored areas downwind of the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday, with a little bit of snow possible for Northern New England as well. Otherwise, this looks like a relatively quiet period with only some light snow along the eastern slopes of the Continental Divide from Montana to New Mexico.

Outlook for Sun 11/20 – Thu 11/24:

Cold air will remain locked into place across Central and Eastern North America, with the Great Lakes, Northern New England, and Southeast Canada looking like the most favored areas for snow. All areas of the East will continue to see good snowmaking conditions, however.

Out West, high pressure will start to weaken enough for storms to return to the Pacific Northwest at least, and possibly further inland by later in this period (around Thanksgiving). However, warmer air arriving also means that rain could be an issue at times across the Northwest. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Wednesday (11/16).

ALAN SMITH