New England storm followed by heavy lake effect snow from Michigan to New York

The East will see its first true blast of winter over the next several days with cold temperatures and snow from the Great Lakes to New England. First, a storm moving up the East Coast on Wednesday will bring heavy snow to Northern New England, favoring areas such as Stowe, Jay Peak, and Sugarloaf. However, warm air moving in from the south will result in a transition to mixed precipitation (sleet, freezing rain, & rain) toward the end of the event.

In the days to follow, a frigid airmass will settle over the comparatively warm Great Lakes. This will cause the air above the lakes to become unstable, resulting in bands of extremely heavy lake effect snow developing immediately downwind of the lakes in Michigan, Ontario, and Western New York with light to moderate snow showers at times across New England and the Mid-Atlantic.

For more details on this snowy pattern, check out the following Daily Snows:

• New England Daily Snow
• Midwest Daily Snow
• Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

Forecast for Wed 11/16 – Thu 11/17:

Snow will fall across Northern New England on Wednesday before changing over to a wintry mix, while areas north of the Canadian border should stay all-snow. Colder air arriving on the backside of the storm will result in a change-over to light snow showers from West Virginia to Pennsylvania on Wednesday, and Upstate New York and New England on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Meanwhile, the lake effect snow machine will crank up beginning on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday from Michigan to Western New York. 

Out West, a storm will slide down the eastern slopes of the Continental Divide, bringing locally heavy snow to parts of Central and Southern Montana, including the Beartooth Range and Red Lodge, as well as the Big Horn Range in Wyoming.

Forecast for Fri 11/18 – Sat 11/19:

Heavy lake-effect snow will continue across locally favored areas in Michigan, Ontario, and Western New York on Friday and Saturday with some areas likely to receive multiple feet of snow. Light snow showers can be expected across Northern New England along with favorable snowmaking conditions due to cold temperatures.

The Continental Divide storm out West will lose some of its punch as it moves southward with only light snow expected along the eastern slopes of the Divide in Colorado and New Mexico. 

Forecast for Sun 11/20 – Mon 11/21:

Periods of lake effect snow will continue on Sunday across the Upper Midwest and East before starting to wind down on Monday. Out West, a storm will begin to impact the Pacific Northwest on Monday but mild temperatures could result in rain & snow level issues, while the Coast Range of Northwest BC and Alaska could see heavy snow. 

Outlook for Tue 11/22 – Sat 11/26:

Following a cold couple of weeks, temperatures will begin to moderate across most of North America during this period, while high pressure will also weaken out west, allowing storms to return to the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada at least.

We'll have to keep an eye on temperatures as rain could be an issue at ski resorts in the Northwest from time to time. Also, it's questionable how much (if any) moisture will make it further south into California and the Central Rockies during this period.

Across the East, we'll also be keeping an eye on Northern New England for potential shots of snow heading into the holiday weekend. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (11/18).

ALAN SMITH