Storm track favors British Columbia:

BC has had a quiet winter so far with most of the action happening south of the U.S. border. However, the jet stream will set up further north over the next week, resulting in frequent storms for BC with deep totals adding up, especially once we get past the weekend. The Canadian Rockies will get in on the action as well.

Meanwhile, after a relatively quiet week, the Western U.S. will see a storm on Sunday and Monday with the Sierra Nevada Range including Tahoe expected to be the most favored. Parts of the PNW will also see moderate to heavy snow with lighter snowfall for the Rockies. 

Forecast for Fri, Feb 3 – Sat, Feb 4:

A storm will impact BC on Friday and Saturday with heavy snow for the Coast Range and northern portions of the province, while the Northwest U.S. including the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Northwest Montana will see light snow.

An arctic cold front will move across New England on Friday with a round of light snow showers, but frigid temperatures will be the big story rather than snow. Lake effect snow showers can also be expected across the Great Lakes on both Friday and Saturday.

Forecast for Sun, Feb 5 – Mon, Feb 6:

A strong storm will impact the West Coast of the U.S. on Sunday with heavy snow expected for the Sierra while snowfall will be more variable further north in the Cascades and PNW with locally heavy totals possible. The Rockies will see leftovers from this storm on Sunday night and Monday with light to moderate totals for most areas.

Further north, British Columbia will see light to moderate snow from Sunday's storm, then a stronger storm will arrive on Monday with deep totals expected especially across the Coast Range. Alaska will see heavy snow from this storm as well.

Across the East, a weak disturbance will move across the Great Lakes and New England with light snow showers expected.

Forecast for Tue, Feb 7 – Wed, Feb 8:

The storm impacting the Western U.S. over previous days will reach the Southern Rockies on Monday night and Tuesday with snow favoring New Mexico. Meanwhile, a series of strong storms will continue to impact BC with heavy snow expected for the Coast Range as well as the Interior Powder Highway region, while the Alberta Rockies should also get in on the action.

South of the border, moderate to heavy snow is also possible across the North Cascades and Northern Idaho/Montana. Confidence is low in terms of how far south the moisture with this storm will make it, and whether or not the Sierra and the Central Rockies will pick up any snow. 

The Great Lakes and New England will likely see another weak-ish storm move through during this period, but a surge of much warmer air is also expected. As a result, many areas will see a mix of snow and rain, and possibly ice. 

Outlook for Thu, Feb 9 – Mon, Feb 13:

The storm track during this period looks most favorable for Northern BC and Alaska where heavy snow can be expected. Further south, storms that reach the West Coast will have the tendency to weaken and split apart. Often in these types of patterns, storms will dive southward into the Four Corners region, so I would keep an eye on Southwest Colorado and New Mexico. 

Temperatures are expected to be colder than average west of the Continental Divide during this period. Meanwhile, temperatures will be well above average across the Eastern U.S. Storms are likely to impact the East during this period, but precipitation will likely be a mixed bag for New England and mostly rain for areas further south. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Monday (Feb 6).

ALAN SMITH

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