Snowfall Over the Next Seven Days (December 20-26):

A large portion of the Western U.S. has been in a dry spell over the previous 7-10 days, but we will see some signs of life in the days ahead with most areas receiving light to moderate snow. Deeper snow totals will remain confined to areas north of the Canadian border, especially from Central BC into Alaska. 

New England just experienced an unfortunate heavy rain and flooding event early this week that negatively impacted ski terrain and operations. While there is little natural snow in the forecast for this region, colder temperatures ahead will provide for favorable snowmaking conditions at least.

Here is a 7-day snowfall projection, representing the average of 50 simulations of the European weather model:

Forecast for Wed (Dec 20) to Thu (Dec 21):

A storm spinning off the West Coast will work its way southward with additional snow and rain favoring the Southern Sierra Nevada Range. Mammoth Mountain will be the most favored area in this pattern. Limited moisture will sneak into the Rockies with spotty light snow showers/flurries. Further north, storms will bring heavy snow to Northern BC and Alaska.

Forecast for Fri (Dec 22) to Sat (Dec 23):

Two storms will move across the West during this period with colder air and more widespread snow. The first storm will favor the Southwest while the second storm will drop into the Northwest. Most areas will see light to moderate snow, with locally heavy snow possible in Southwest Colorado and across Western BC.

Forecast for Sun (Dec 24) to Mon (Dec 25):

A storm will move across the Four Corners region and will slow down as it does so, with winds shifting to easterly (blowing from the east) and favoring the eastern side of the Continental Divide in the Rockies. There is still some uncertainty in the storm track, and this will impact where the heaviest snow will fall. 

Another storm is likely to impact BC on Christmas Day, but models are in poor agreement with the north vs southward extent of the storm track, and whether or not Whistler or other major ski areas get in on the action.

Outlook for Tue (Dec 26) to Sat (Dec 30):

The 5-day temperature outlook has a classic El Nino look to it with above-average temperatures across Canada and the Northern U.S. and near to below-average temperatures across the Southern U.S.

The most favored area for storms will be the Coast Range of BC, while California and the Sierra Nevada Range could see storms as well though confidence is lower for this region. High pressure will dominate the pattern over the Intermountain West and storms will struggle to survive by the time they reach the Rockies.

The East also looks fairly quiet with above-average temperatures expected.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (Dec 22).

Alan Smith 

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