Utah Daily Snow

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By Evan Thayer, Forecaster Posted 5 years ago November 21, 2018

Last Day of Waiting

Summary

Today is the last day before we see winter arrive in earnest with a series of storms. The first storm is timing for Thanksgiving Day with modest snowfall in the mountains. Significant snow is likely with the second storm Friday thru Saturday. Additional storms possible next week.

Short Term Forecast

All systems go! 

Storm 1:

We've been waiting now for the better part of 2 weeks for these storms to arrive and today is the last day of waiting.  Tomorrow -- Thanksgiving Day -- the first system arrives.  This system is fast-moving and rather unorganized.  Still, during the day, the high elevations should see 3-6" of snow.  Perhaps a bit more in some favored areas.  

Storm 2

The second storm will begin on Friday with overrunning moisture bringing snow to the mountains during the day on Friday.  The main part of the system arrives late Friday evening with heavy snow likely Friday night into Saturday morning.  By midday Saturday, the storm should be wrapping up.  The snow level will be dropping down to valley floors Friday night so snow is possible on valley floors along the Wasatch Front.  This second storm should bring an additional 1-2 FEET of snow with higher amounts possible in favored areas. 

We are now fully in range of the 12km NAM -- one of the best models for projecting snowfall.  

You can see about 6" of snow with the first storm which is in line with my forecast.  Then, early Friday it starts snowing again with accumulating snow continuing thru Saturday morning.  The second storm has approximately 24" of snow for a total of 32".  This is in line with what the forecast has been for the past several days, so this gives me additional confidence! 

Again, this is for the Upper Cottonwoods, amounts elsewhere will likely not be quite as high.  3-day totals likely to be 15-30" in the high elevations of the Wasatch.  

Southern Utah will not fare quite as well.  However, they should see a couple inches tomorrow.  Then see some additional snow on Saturday when the precip sags farther south.  A few more inches will be possible in the Southern Utah mountains on Saturday.  Total accumulations in southern Utah should remain under a foot.  

NOTE:  This new snow will be falling on weak and faceted layers on north-facing slopes.  This is snow that has been sitting there since early October and has rotted substantially.  Avalanche conditions will likely be elevated.  I worry that many people will be tempted into the backcountry due to limited terrain open in-bounds.  Please consult the Utah Avalance Center before chasing snow in the backcountry.  Please also be patient with Ski Patrol who need to ensure everything is safe before they open new terrain.  

Extended Forecast

We have a break in the action from roughly Sunday thru at least Tuesday.  The next storm is likely to approach the area on Wednesday with perhaps the best snow falling Wednesday night into Thursday of next week (November 27-28).  Still a bit early for details on this, but it has potential to bring at least moderate accumulations.  More good news! 

Evan | OpenSnow

Just as a point of reference, I'm going to post the current snowpack numbers for the state of Utah: 

These numbers should be improved substantially by the end of the weekend.  Will be curious how high these numbers go.  

And, I bumped up the Stoke Meter totals.  Confidence is also high.  I added an element for current conditions as well so it's not just the forecast but now factors in existing conditions / recent snow.  The only thing keeping us from "Extreme" right now is the fact that current condition stoke is low due to lack of recent snow and limited terrain open: 

About Our Forecaster

Evan Thayer

Forecaster

To Evan, 'The Greatest Snow on Earth' is more than just a motto - it’s a way of life. In 2010, he started Wasatch Snow Forecast as a way to share the best powder days with his fellow snow-lovers. Evan brings the same quality forecasts and weather discussions to OpenSnow and hopes you enjoy skiing/riding Utah as much as he does.

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