High pressure remains in control for the foreseeable future.
Short Term Forecast
Tuesday Update: No change. Still waiting for something tangible to show up. Will do full update again when we see more concrete signs of change.
If you've been reading the forecasts that last few days, you'll know that we are just in a waiting game to see when the pattern flips again and we have a chance for storms. Unfortunately, every time I check the new runs of forecast models I am bitterly disappointed. It usually goes something like this:
The current GFS for the next 10 days looks like this:
Notice Utah is high and dry with blocking high pressure keeping storms well north and east of the area. Expect normal to slightly above normal temps thru mid-month.
I keep searching for signs of change. Right now I don't see anything in the next 15 days for Utah specifically. However, if you watch the below loop of mean height anomalies, you can see there is a growing consensus for a deep trough to develop in the Gulf of AK around November 18-20:
That's a lot of high pressure (warm colors) over our part of the country. But perhaps some hope for the very end of November. We can also look at PNA teleconnections to help us determine patterns. Right now the PNA is going strongly positive. There are some indications in could flip negative again around November 20th. Of course, we are grasping at straws -- but we have no other choice at this point.
Evan | OpenSnow
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