Summary
Clouds will increase today ahead of a weak storm that will push through tonight into early Monday. Another weak system will pass thru Tuesday night. Modest powder days possible Monday and Wednesday. Generally dry weather heading into next weekend.
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Short Term Forecast
Increasing clouds today and some breezes on the ridges as another weak wave approaches. Snow will develop Sunday evening and continue thru the night in many mountain locations. This is not a strong storm, but it has trended better since yesterday morning in the NAM. Here is map form of the NAM for the state:
It's kinda a weakling... but again, me insulting this storm and calling it weak and pathetic seems to be working...
So let's just stick with it, eh?
If we look at the NAM 12km in graphical form for the Upper Cottonwoods, you can see it's only putting down about 4":
I'd say this is probably slightly underdone. I think it's a good bet to just say a general 3-6" for the high Wasatch Mountains of Northern Utah. There is possibility that this could over-deliver in the typical locations. We've had good luck with Monday over-deliveries so far this season.
You can also see that we have another weak system pushing thru on Tuesday night. This one currently looks a even weaker than the first. We can't rule out an additional few inches for Wednesday morning.
These storms are not strong by any means. Still, dry patterns are normal here in Utah during the winter so this "dirty ridge" is certainly better than dominant high pressure where we see nothing at all.
Extended Forecast
The weather should dry out again as we head toward the weekend. It's not out of the question that we could be grazed by weak waves, but accumulations look unlikely. Right now, I think somewhere in the February 3-5 timeframe will be our next chance for more appreciable accumulation as models have a low pressure system dropping into the western US. As I look at the more broad-scale pattern in early February, it appears as if the big ridge off the west coast will ever-so-slowly move west, which should gradually improve our chances of snow as we head toward the second week of the month.
Evan | OpenSnow
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