Hot weather has dominated the region lately! Almost the entire state set records this past week as temps climbed into the triple digits in along the Wasatch Front and well above 110 in St. George. SLC has seen 8 days at or above 100F this month. That is a record for August. We really haven't had much reprieve from the heat either. After yesterday, we have seen 32 consecutive days at the SLC airport with high temps at or above 92F. That ties the record for most consecutive days. We should break that record today and continue to add to it for most of this week. 

The other negative has been smoky skies. These are mostly thanks to large fire complexes buring in California. These were sparked by dry lightning strikes from a very unusual pattern last week in which remnant moisture and instability from a hurricane was pulled up into coastal California. The fires have been quite serious and HUGE. So large, in fact, that two of the fire complexes currently occupy 2nd and 3rd place on California's list of largest wildfires ever! ... and they are burning at the same time! Crazy. If that's not bad enough, California is just barely entering what is historically its worst part of fire season (Sept-Nov). There have also been some additional dry lightning strikes today from remnants of another hurricane (Genevieve). For us in Utah, it has meant quite a bit of haze and smoke is in the air. You can see that clearly using OpenSummit's smoke overlays:

 

Shameless plug: OpenSummit (shown above) is the app/website we launched last year for summer recreational activities. I have to say, it's amazing. It has so many useful features such as this smoke map overlay, as well as snow depth, radar, forecasted radar, and more features coming soon. Full disclosure, these do require an All-Access membership, BUT ... your OpenSnow membership includes OpenSummit! 

All-Access Details

Looking at the above map, you can actually see that we have generally been lucky so far. The worst of the smoke has been to our north and west. SW flow has sent the thick stuff into the Snake River valley and Tetons. 

The saving grace amongst all this bad news is that Utah is actually seeing a bit more moisture. We've had an incredible, and in some cases, record dry summer so far. Yesterday, much of the southern half of Utah saw precip. You can see that in the below radar estimated rainfall in the past 24 hours: 

The heaviest precip was in SW Utah where St. George got POUNDED with a storm last night that brought torrential rainfall. If we zoom in on the St. G area...

It was a direct bullseye over St. George. Up to 2" of rain fell in a very short amount of time. Numerous reports of flooded roads overnight down there. The rain was great news, but perhaps it would have been nice if it came over a slightly more extended period of time... 

Up in the Wasatch, the rain had more difficulty reaching this far north. However, there were a few brief showers in the mountains of northern Utah yesterday. We should have a better chance for more beneficial storms today. Using the HRRR forecasted radar on the OpenSummit app, I can see that we have a good chance for some showers along the Wasatch and Wasatch front this afternoon and evening. You can see it picking up on scattered showers below: 

Hopefully, we see some rainfall that actually soaks the ground! We will have another shot at showers again on Tuesday before we dry out for a few days. We then have another chance for showers again on Saturday. 

Perhaps the BIGGEST NEWS in this forecast is that we actually have a cool, fall-like trough that looks like it will brush the region to start next week. The brunt of the cold air should stay well to our north and east on the other side of the continental divide, but we should see a substantial drop in temperatures to below average levels. It's been quite a while since we've seen below average temps. Here is a look at the trough as it drops into the Pac NW late this weekend: 

The cool colors on the map indicate below normal temperatures. Notice how they then progress into our area by Monday and Tuesday of next week: 

It's unlikely we see any real precipitation from this "system", but just having a change to the hot temperature monotony will be so nice! Imagine a day or two with high temps in the upper 70s rather than upper 90s! 

Unfortunately, this change looks like it will be short-lived as high pressure will likely re-establish itself along the west coast as we head toward the second week of September. 

Still no insights I can give you into the season. Winter forecasts are just guess-work. My colleague posted a great article on analyzing last year's winter forecasts to see if anybody got it right. Spoiler Alert: not really. 

We will just have to wait and see what mother nature brings us in the winter. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has seasonal forecasts published for the Fall. Here is their forecast for the next month: 

Hotter than average temps likely and drier than average. More of the same, essentially. 

Then, the 3-month outlook thru early November...

More of the same, unfortunately. We seem to be stuck in a pattern where North America is on full blast with hotter-than-normal temps and the west is parched! I hope this is wrong, but I wouldn't bet against inertia. 

I will update again next time we have weather of note incoming. I may be posting a bit less frequently this fall than in year's past as I focus on family. But as we get closer to winter, normal service will be resumed. 

Cheers! 

Evan | OpenSnow